Trend analysis and prediction of the disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2021_Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Authors：

XU Shenggang ^1,2,3,4 , YANG Kehu ^2,3 ,  LI Xiuxia ^1,2,3 ,  GUO Yongbin ⁵

1. Health Technology Assessment Center/Evidence Based Social Science Research Center, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China;
2. Evidence Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China;
3. Key Laboratory of Evidence Based Medicine and Knowledge Translation of Gansu Province, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China;
4. Department of Preventive Medicine, Hexi University, Zhangye 734000, P. R. China;
5. Peripheral Vascular Intervention Department, Wuwei People's Hospital, Wuwei 733000, P. R. China;

Corresponding?author：

LI Xiuxia, Email: lixiuxia@lzu.edu; GUO Yongbin, Email: 996200531@qq.com

Keywords：

Tracheal and bronchial lung cancer; Disease burden; Forecast; Disease prevention

DOI：

10.7507/1672-2531.202411097

Video：

Export PDF Favorites Scan Get Citation

Abstract Full text Figures/Tables Video References Cited by

Objective To analyze the trend of disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict its future changes. Methods Data was extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Database 2021 to analyze the disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2021. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends. The BAPC model was employed to predict the future disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China. Results In 2021, the standardized incidence rate, standardized prevalence, standardized mortality rate, and standardized DALYs rate of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China were 44.01/100 000, 57.95/100 000, 38.98/100 000, and 878.25/100 000, all of which showed an upward trend compared to 1990, with the standardized prevalence increasing the fastest at 71.75%, followed by the standardized incidence rate, which increased by 32.93%. BAPC prediction results indicated that the standardized incidence and prevalence rates of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in the Chinese population will show an upward trend, while the standardized mortality rate will show a downward trend, and the standardized DALYs rate will remain relatively stable from 2022 to 2035. The standardized incidence rate is expected to rise from 46.18/100 000 in 2022 to 50.32/100 000 in 2035, the standardized prevalence rate is expected to rise from 60.47/100 000 in 2022 to 73.49/100 000 in 2035, the standardized mortality rate is expected to decrease from 39.75/100 000 in 2022 to 36.53/100 000 in 2035, and the standardized DALYs rate is expected to rise from 903.25/100 000 in 2022 to 916.38/100 000 in 2035. Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China showed an upward trend. Although the disease burden among the elderly and males is more prominent, the rate of increase among females in the past decade has been rapid and shows a trend towards younger ages. Comprehensive prevention and control measures should be taken. It is predicted that the situation of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer incidence and prevalence in China will remain very serious from 2022 to 2035.

Citation： XU Shenggang, YANG Kehu, LI Xiuxia, GUO Yongbin. Trend analysis and prediction of the disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2021. Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine, 2025, 25(9): 1001-1006. doi: 10.7507/1672-2531.202411097 Copy

1.	Sung H, Ferlay J, Siegel RL, et al. Global cancer statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA Cancer J Clin, 2021, 71(3): 209-249.
2.	Chen S, Cao Z, Prettner K, et al. Estimates and projections of the global economic cost of 29 cancers in 204 countries and territories from 2020 to 2050. JAMA Oncol, 2023, 9(4): 465-472.
3.	Global Burden of Disease 2019 Cancer Collaboration, Kocarnik JM, Compton K, et al. Cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years for 29 cancer groups from 2010 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019. JAMA Oncol, 2022, 8(3): 420-444.
4.	Bai R, Dong W, Chu M, et al. Trends in mortality due to tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis based on the global burden of disease study 1990-2019. Chin Med J (Engl), 2024, 137(23): 2860-2867.
5.	中華醫學會呼吸病學分會. 早期氣管、支氣管肺癌診斷中國專家共識(2023年版). 中華結核和呼吸雜志, 2023, 49(1): 1-18.
6.	Shintani Y, Kimura T, Funaki S, et al. Therapeutic targeting of cancer-associated fibroblasts in the non-small cell lung cancer tumor microenvironment. Cancers (Basel), 2023, 15(2): 335.
7.	黨靜, 馬新顏, 翟士勇, 等. 石家莊市氣管、支氣管肺癌患者生存分析. 現代腫瘤醫學, 2023, 31(4): 752-755.
8.	陳松景, 吳思竹. 基于深度強化學習的老年氣管、支氣管肺癌發病高危人群干預效果預測分析方法. 中華醫學圖書情報雜志, 2021, 30(8): 15-19.
9.	GBD 2021 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators. Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021. Lancet, 2024, 403(10440): 2133-2161.
10.	Pham PT, Pekarcikova J, Edelstein R, et al. Joinpoint analysis of colorectal cancer trend in the Slovakia. Bratisl Lek Listy, 2023, 124(11): 833-841.
11.	Wu Z, Wang W, Zhang K, et al. Trends in the incidence of cirrhosis in global from 1990 to 2019: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis. J Med Virol, 2023, 95(6): e28858.
12.	Hincapie-Castillo JM, Goodin A. Using Joinpoint regression for drug utilization research: tutorial and case study of prescription opioid use in the United States. Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf, 2023, 32(5): 509-516.
13.	曾四清, 李艷, 劉珺, 等. 兩組序列數據趨勢變化特征對比分析的Joinpoint回歸模型方法及應用. 中國衛生統計, 2021, 38(2): 307-311.
14.	徐若愚, 王家琛, 林玥彤, 等. 1990-2019年中國偏頭痛發病趨勢及其年齡-時期-隊列分析. 中國循證醫學雜志, 2024, 24(6): 658-665.
15.	楊明, 汪舒文, 宇傳華. 1990-2019年中國皮膚惡性腫瘤疾病負擔狀況及發病趨勢預測. 中國腫瘤, 2022, 31(11): 853-861.
16.	Parascandola M, Xiao L. Tobacco and the lung cancer epidemic in China. Transl Lung Cancer Res, 2019, 8(Suppl 1): S21-S30.
17.	馬運, 袁浩冉, 胡昊, 等. 1990-2019年中國歸因于煙草的肺癌疾病負擔變化趨勢分析. 現代預防醫學, 2024, 51(8): 1345-1351.
18.	World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific. The bill China cannot afford: health, economic, and social costs of China’s tobacco epidemic. Manila: World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific, 2017.
19.	Kristina SA, Endarti D, Thavorncharoensap M. Burden of cancer attributable to tobacco smoking in member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), 2012. Cancer Epidemiol, 2016, 44: 84-90.
20.	Mirahmadizadeh A, Hassanzadeh J, Moradi AM, et al. Projection of the prevalence of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer incidence using cigarette smoking prevalence in Iran from 1990 to 2018: a comparison of latent period-based models with standard forecasting models. BMC Public Health, 2024, 24(1): 1896.
21.	王辰, 肖丹, 池慧. 《中國吸煙危害健康報告2020》概要. 中國循環雜志, 2021, 36(10): 937-952.
22.	Kuang Z, Wang J, Liu K, et al. Global, regional, and national burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and its risk factors from 1990 to 2021: findings from the global burden of disease study 2021. EClinicalMedicine, 2024, 75: 102804.
23.	劉琛. 女性吸煙者吸煙動機對壓力知覺的影響及其作用機制. 重慶: 西南大學, 2023.
24.	Clément-Duchêne C, Vignaud JM, Stoufflet A, et al. Characteristics of never smoker lung cancer including environmental and occupational risk factors. Lung Cancer, 2010, 67(2): 144-150.
25.	Bray F, Laversanne M, Sung H, et al. Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA Cancer J Clin, 2024, 74(3): 229-263.

1. Sung H, Ferlay J, Siegel RL, et al. Global cancer statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA Cancer J Clin, 2021, 71(3): 209-249.
2. Chen S, Cao Z, Prettner K, et al. Estimates and projections of the global economic cost of 29 cancers in 204 countries and territories from 2020 to 2050. JAMA Oncol, 2023, 9(4): 465-472.
3. Global Burden of Disease 2019 Cancer Collaboration, Kocarnik JM, Compton K, et al. Cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years for 29 cancer groups from 2010 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019. JAMA Oncol, 2022, 8(3): 420-444.
4. Bai R, Dong W, Chu M, et al. Trends in mortality due to tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis based on the global burden of disease study 1990-2019. Chin Med J (Engl), 2024, 137(23): 2860-2867.
5. 中華醫學會呼吸病學分會. 早期氣管、支氣管肺癌診斷中國專家共識(2023年版). 中華結核和呼吸雜志, 2023, 49(1): 1-18.
6. Shintani Y, Kimura T, Funaki S, et al. Therapeutic targeting of cancer-associated fibroblasts in the non-small cell lung cancer tumor microenvironment. Cancers (Basel), 2023, 15(2): 335.
7. 黨靜, 馬新顏, 翟士勇, 等. 石家莊市氣管、支氣管肺癌患者生存分析. 現代腫瘤醫學, 2023, 31(4): 752-755.
8. 陳松景, 吳思竹. 基于深度強化學習的老年氣管、支氣管肺癌發病高危人群干預效果預測分析方法. 中華醫學圖書情報雜志, 2021, 30(8): 15-19.
9. GBD 2021 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators. Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021. Lancet, 2024, 403(10440): 2133-2161.
10. Pham PT, Pekarcikova J, Edelstein R, et al. Joinpoint analysis of colorectal cancer trend in the Slovakia. Bratisl Lek Listy, 2023, 124(11): 833-841.
11. Wu Z, Wang W, Zhang K, et al. Trends in the incidence of cirrhosis in global from 1990 to 2019: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis. J Med Virol, 2023, 95(6): e28858.
12. Hincapie-Castillo JM, Goodin A. Using Joinpoint regression for drug utilization research: tutorial and case study of prescription opioid use in the United States. Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf, 2023, 32(5): 509-516.
13. 曾四清, 李艷, 劉珺, 等. 兩組序列數據趨勢變化特征對比分析的Joinpoint回歸模型方法及應用. 中國衛生統計, 2021, 38(2): 307-311.
14. 徐若愚, 王家琛, 林玥彤, 等. 1990-2019年中國偏頭痛發病趨勢及其年齡-時期-隊列分析. 中國循證醫學雜志, 2024, 24(6): 658-665.
15. 楊明, 汪舒文, 宇傳華. 1990-2019年中國皮膚惡性腫瘤疾病負擔狀況及發病趨勢預測. 中國腫瘤, 2022, 31(11): 853-861.
16. Parascandola M, Xiao L. Tobacco and the lung cancer epidemic in China. Transl Lung Cancer Res, 2019, 8(Suppl 1): S21-S30.
17. 馬運, 袁浩冉, 胡昊, 等. 1990-2019年中國歸因于煙草的肺癌疾病負擔變化趨勢分析. 現代預防醫學, 2024, 51(8): 1345-1351.
18. World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific. The bill China cannot afford: health, economic, and social costs of China’s tobacco epidemic. Manila: World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific, 2017.
19. Kristina SA, Endarti D, Thavorncharoensap M. Burden of cancer attributable to tobacco smoking in member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), 2012. Cancer Epidemiol, 2016, 44: 84-90.
20. Mirahmadizadeh A, Hassanzadeh J, Moradi AM, et al. Projection of the prevalence of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer incidence using cigarette smoking prevalence in Iran from 1990 to 2018: a comparison of latent period-based models with standard forecasting models. BMC Public Health, 2024, 24(1): 1896.
21. 王辰, 肖丹, 池慧. 《中國吸煙危害健康報告2020》概要. 中國循環雜志, 2021, 36(10): 937-952.
22. Kuang Z, Wang J, Liu K, et al. Global, regional, and national burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and its risk factors from 1990 to 2021: findings from the global burden of disease study 2021. EClinicalMedicine, 2024, 75: 102804.
23. 劉琛. 女性吸煙者吸煙動機對壓力知覺的影響及其作用機制. 重慶: 西南大學, 2023.
24. Clément-Duchêne C, Vignaud JM, Stoufflet A, et al. Characteristics of never smoker lung cancer including environmental and occupational risk factors. Lung Cancer, 2010, 67(2): 144-150.
25. Bray F, Laversanne M, Sung H, et al. Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA Cancer J Clin, 2024, 74(3): 229-263.

Next Article
Trend of disease burden and incidence prediction of type 2 diabetes nephropathy in China from 1990 to 2021

Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Trend analysis and prediction of the disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2021

Abstract Full text Figures/Tables Video References Cited by

Next Article

Format

Content