Objective To establish a prediction model for the 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates in patients with gastric cancer liver metastases (GCLM) by analyzing prognostic factors based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Methods Clinical and pathological data from 591 patients diagnosed with GCLM between 2010 and 2015 were obtained from the SEER database. The population was randomly divided into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort at a 7 to 3 ratio. Independent predictors of GCLM were analyzed using univariate and multifactorial Cox regression. Consequently, nomograms were constructed. The model's accuracy was verified by calibration curve, ROC curve, and the C-index, and the clinical utility of the model was analyzed through decision curve analysis. Results Tumor differentiation grade, surgical status, and chemotherapy were significantly associated with the prognosis of GCLM patients, and these three factors were included in constructing the prognostic model and plotting the nomogram. The C-index was 0.706 (95%CI 0.677 to 0.735) and 0.749 (95%CI 0.710 to 0.788) for the training set and the internal validation cohort, respectively. The results of the ROC curve analysis indicated that the area under the curve (AUC) was over 0.7 at 1, 3, and 5 years for both the training and validation cohorts. Conclusion The prediction model of the GCLM is developed based on the 3 factors, i.e., tumor differentiation grade, surgery, and chemotherapy, and shows good prediction accuracy and thus may promote clinical decision making and individualized treatment of GCLM patients.
