ObjectiveTo construct a preoperative objective index-based model for predicting the mortality risk of aortic dissection, aiming to provide a quick risk assessment tool for primary healthcare. MethodsA total of 271 patients with thoracic aortic dissection from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-Ⅳ) database between 2008 and 2019 were included. These patients were randomly divided into a training set, a validation set, and a test set at a ratio of 7:2:1. Based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC), forward regression was used to select the risk factors for patients with post-dissection mortality, and the XGBoost algorithm was employed to establish the prediction model. The SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanation) theory was used for interpretive analysis. ResultsOut of the 271 patients of aortic dissection, 158 were males and 113 were females, with a median age of 70.3 (58.8, 79.5) years. The training set, validation set, and test set consisted of 189, 54, and 28 patients respectively. During the follow-up period, 99 deaths (36.5%) occurred. Using the forward stepwise regression based on the AIC criterion, 18 preoperative independent predictors were identified. An XGBoost prediction model was constructed accordingly. After grid search optimization, the model demonstrated good discrimination and calibration in both the validation set [area under the curve (AUC)=0.681] and the test set (AUC=0.735). The SHAP analysis indicated that age (SHAP=0.081), activated partial thromboplastin time (SHAP=0.065), and red cell distribution width (SHAP=0.038) were the top three predictive contributors. ConclusionThe aortic dissection mortality risk prediction model constructed based on the XGBoost algorithm can effectively predict the incidence of mortality outcomes. Characteristic indicators such as age, activated partial thromboplastin time, and red cell distribution width can assist clinicians in identifying high-risk patients, making triage referral decisions, and optimizing preoperative interventions within the golden time window, ultimately aiming to reduce the mortality rate of patients with aortic dissection.
Objective
To evaluate long-term clinical results in patients who underwent mitral valve replacement and suture tricuspid annuloplasty.
Methods
We included 401 patients who underwent mitral valve replacement and suture tricuspid annuloplasty in our hospital between January 2006 and March 2011. There were 309 females and 92 males at age of 17-71 (46.2±12.0) years. All patients were investigated by echocardiography at postoperative 5 years. The tricuspid valve procedures consisted of bicuspidization, modified Kay annuloplasty and leaflet repair according to the actual conditions.
Results
The patients were followed up for 5–10 (7.4±1.4) years. As compared with preoperation, the right atrium (RA, 7.6±13.0 mm vs. 49.3±13.2 mm), right ventrium (RV, 23.2±4.7 mm vs. 22.0±3.6 mm), left atrium (LA, 59.7±19.0 mm vs. 53.6±14.7 mm, left ventrium (LV, 49.3±8.6 mm vs. 47.7±6.2 mm), tricuspid of end-distolic diameters (TEDD, 35.9±5.7 mm vs. 32.8±5.9 mm) and tricuspid of end-systolic diameters (TESD, 9.4±5.7 mm vs. 26.5±4.9 mm) of patients decreased significantly at postoperation (P<0.01). As compared with preoperation, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF, 60.3%±8.9% vs. 61.7%±8.3%) and left ventricular fractional shortening (LVFS, 32.6%±6.3% vs. 33.8%±5.5%) raised significantly at postoperation (P<0.01). As compared with preoperation, the constituent rate of tricuspid regurgitation (TR) improved significantly at postoperation (P<0.01).
Conclusion
Tricuspid annuloplasty adopting TEDD as a surgical indication is reasonable for patients with mitral diseases. Combined and individualized suture tricuspid annuloplasty can obtain better long-term results. It is needed to order aggressive diuretics treatment for patients with postoperative TR.
Objective
Influence factors of the stable warfarin dose in the early period after mechanical prosthetic valve replacement were analyzed to guide the anticoagulation therapy for these patients.
Methods
A total of 288 patients within 6 months after mechanical prosthetic valve replacement in West China Hospital were followed up and registered at outpatient department from July 2012 to April 2014, including basic information (name, sex, age, height, weight, etc.), general clinical data (cardiac function, heart rate, surgery pattern, etc.) and related data about anticoagulation therapy. The target international standardized ratio (INR) range was 1.60 to 2.20 and the acceptable INR was 1.50 to 2.30. The sex, age, height, body weight, body mass index (BMI), body surface area (BSA) and related clinical factors were analyzed to find the relationship with the dose of warfarin.
Results
Sex was found to have a significant effect on the stable warfarin dose (P<0.05). Women needed a lower stable warfarin dose than men during the early anticoagulation therapy. There was no significant difference in the stable warfarin dose of patients with different ages, rhythms, NYHA classification, surgery pattern and diseases before operation; but the stable warfarin dose was lower in the patients with radiofrequency ablation during valve replacement procedures than the patients with single valve replacement (P<0.05). There was an association between age, height, weight, BMI, BSA and the stable warfarin dose withR2 of 1.2%, 3.2%, 3.5%, 1.1%, 4.2%, respectively and they could explain 6.1% of variability in warfarin dose.
Conclusion
During early anticoagulation therapy in patients with mechanical prosthetic valve replacement, it is necessary to consider the effects of various preoperative factors, drug factors and demographic factors on warfarin dose. Even though there is an association between age, height, weight, BMI, BSA and the stable warfarin dose, which can only explain 6.1% of variability in warfarin dose, thus cannot guide the postoperative anticoagulation of these patients.
