Objective To analyze the disease burden of pelvic fractures at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2023 using data from the 2023 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), and to predict the disease burden through 2050. Methods Leveraging data from the GBD 2023, this study investigated the disease burden of pelvic fractures across 204 countries and regions. Assessment indicators included incidence rate, prevalence rate, and years lived with disability (YLDs). The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze trends in pelvic fracture burden from 1990 to 2023, while the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to quantify this temporal trend. The relationship between the socio-demographic index and pelvic fracture burden was evaluated. Furthermore, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model was applied to predict trends in pelvic fracture burden through 2050. Results In 2023, the estimated number of new pelvic fracture cases globally was 7 479 884 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 5 293 401-10 611 876], representing a 42.74% increase from 1990. In the same year, the number of prevalent pelvic fracture cases and YLDs were 23 007 508 (95%UI: 21 021 518-25 327 165) and 3 909 228 person-years (95%UI: 2 725 498-5 194 385), respectively. Additionally, age-standardized rates exhibited an opposing downward trend. Significant disparities in the disease burden of pelvic fractures were identified across different age groups, genders, and social contexts. According to predictions from the LSTM model, the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of pelvic fractures will be approximately 88.44 per 100 000 persons by 2050, while the total number of incident cases will rise to 8 547 095. Conclusion Although the overall incidence rate, prevalence rate, and YLDs of pelvic fractures have exhibited an upward trend over the past three decades, the ASIR, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized years of life lost rate (ASYR) have shown a downward trend. It is predicted that over the upcoming 26-year period, the age-standardized rate of disease burden due to pelvic fractures will further decrease, while the number of incident cases and prevalent cases will continue to exhibit an upward trend. Formulating more targeted disease prevention strategies is critical to addressing disparities across genders, regions, and other dimensions, and to mitigating the burden of pelvic fractures.
ObjectiveTo analyze the global pattern, long-term trends, and regional and population heterogeneity in the burden of 375 diseases and injuries and 88 risk factors from 1990 to 2023 using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (GBD 2023). MethodsPublicly available GBD 2023 estimates were extracted for incidence, deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates at the global level and by socio-demographic index (SDI), GBD region, age group, and sex. Descriptive analysis, ranking comparison, stratified analysis, and trend analysis were performed, and 95% uncertainty interval was used to assess the stability of estimates. ResultsIn 2023, non-communicable diseases were the leading contributor to global DALYs, accounting for 64.39% of DALYs across the three major disease and injury groups (communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases, non-communicable diseases, and injuries), and also had the highest age-standardized DALYs rate. From 1990 to 2023, age-standardized DALYs rates declined for three major disease and injury groups, with estimated annual percentage changes of ?2.69%, ?0.78%, and ?1.47%, respectively. Cardiovascular diseases ranked first by both DALYs and deaths in 2023, whereas respiratory infections and tuberculosis ranked first by incidence. Non-communicable diseases were the leading cause of disease burden across all SDI strata. As the SDI level declined, the burden of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases, as well as injuries, increased markedly. Behavioral and metabolic risks remained the main contributors to attributable deaths and DALYs. ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2023, the global burden of disease continues to shift toward non-communicable diseases; however, some regions still face a double burden of infectious, maternal and child, injury-related, and chronic diseases. Integrating deaths, DALYs, YLLs, YLDs, and risk-attributable burden helps identify priority areas for prevention and resource allocation across regions and populations.
Objective To separately analyze the burden and temporal trends of ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and chronic kidney disease (CKD) attributable to eight prespecified behavioral and metabolic risk factors in China from 1990 to 2023. Methods Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) attributable to high systolic blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, high body-mass index, diet high in sodium, diet low in whole grains, diet low in fruits, diet low in vegetables, and low physical activity were extracted for the three diseases from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (GBD 2023) database. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), comparisons across the five original BRICS countries, sex- and age-stratified patterns, and autoregressive integrated moving average projections were analyzed. Results In 2023, high systolic blood pressure was the leading attributable risk for ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke, with attributable DALYs of 19 643 280 person-years and 10 851 413 person-years, and ASDR of 885.65 person-years per 100 000 population and 475.69 person-years per 100 000 population, respectively. High fasting plasma glucose was the leading risk for CKD, with 1 783 113 person-years of DALYs and an ASDR of 78.97 person-years per 100 000 population. The ASDR of ischemic heart disease attributable to high body-mass index increased [EAPC=0.46%, 95%CI (0.35%, 0.57%)]. China had the highest DALYs attributable to high systolic blood pressure for ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke among the five original BRICS countries in 2023. For CKD, the leading attributable risk was high fasting plasma glucose in China and India, high body-mass index in Brazil and South Africa, and high systolic blood pressure in Russia. For the three diseases in 2023, the ASDR associated with the leading attributable risk factor was higher in males than in females. The burdens attributable to the leading risks were concentrated among people aged ≥70 years for ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke and among those aged 50-69 years for CKD. Projections suggested that DALYs attributable to the leading risks would remain high during 2024-2035. Conclusion High systolic blood pressure is the leading attributable risk for ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke, whereas high fasting plasma glucose is the leading risk for CKD. Disease-specific risk management targeting blood pressure control, salt reduction, glycemic management, body weight control, and early kidney screening should be strengthened in China.
