Objective To analyze the disease burden and trends of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (TBL) attributable to occupational carcinogens in China from 1990 to 2021, in order to provide reference for the prevention and control of TBL in China. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease database 2021, with occupational carcinogens as relevant risk factors and tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer as the study diseases, data on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to occupational carcinogens in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted and age-standardized. Joinpoint regression models were used to calculate the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). Hiplot was used to visualize the distribution of disease burden by gender and age. The grey model GM (1, 1) was used to predict the disease burden and trends of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China from 2022 to 2031. Results From 1990 to 2021, the overall mortality rate, DALYs rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China increased from 1.85/100 000,53.93/100 000, 2.64/100 000, and 69.50/100 000 in 1990 to 5.22/100 000, 129.29/100 000, 3.49/100 000, and 83.80/100 000in 2021, respectively. The growth rates were 182.16%, 139.74%, 32.20%, and 20.58%, respectively. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the AAPC values of overall mortality rate, DALYs rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China from 1990 to 2021 were 3.41%, 2.87%, 0.92%, and 0.62%, respectively (all P<0.001), showing an overall upward trend, with higher values in females than in males. In 2021, the overall mortality rate of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China gradually increased with age, with high mortality rates mainly concentrated in those aged ≥65 years, and higher rates in males than in females. The overall DALYs rate showed a trend of increasing first and then slowly decreasing with age, peaking at 65-69 years old, with higher rates in males than in females. The grey prediction model GM (1, 1) showed that the predicted values of mortality rate, DALYs rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China from 2022 to 2031 all showed an upward trend. By 2031, the predicted values of mortality rate, DALYs rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate will reach 7.19/100 000, 175.63/100 000, 4.16/100 000, and 93.64/100 000, respectively. Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, the mortality rate, DALYs rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China all showed an upward trend. Males and the elderly are the main populations affected by the disease burden of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of occupational carcinogens and promote health education.
