ObjectiveTo explore the risk factors for accompanying depression in patients with community type Ⅱ diabetes and to construct their risk prediction model. MethodsA total of 269 patients with type Ⅱ diabetes accompanied with depression and 217 patients with simple type Ⅱ diabetes from three community health service centers in two streets of Pingshan District, Shenzhen from October 2021 to April 2022 were included. The risk factors were analyzed and screened out, and a logistic regression risk prediction model was constructed. The goodness of fit and prediction ability of the model were tested by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Finally, the model was verified. ResultsLogistic regression analysis showed that smoking, diabetes complications, physical function, psychological dimension, medical coping for face, and medical coping for avoidance were independent risk factors for depressive disorder in patients with type Ⅱ diabetes. Modeling group Hosmer-Lemeshow test P=0.345, the area under the ROC curve was 0.987, sensitivity was 95.2% and specificity was 98.6%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.945, sensitivity was 89.8%, specificity was 84.8%, and accuracy was 86.8%, showing the model predictive value. ConclusionThe risk prediction model of type Ⅱ diabetes patients with depressive disorder constructed in this study has good predictive and discriminating ability.
ObjectiveTo review individual treatment effect (ITE) models developed from randomized controlled trials, with the aim of systematically summarizing the current state of model development and assessing the risk of bias. MethodsPubMed and Embase databases were searched for studies published between 1990 and 14 June 2024. Data were extracted using the CHARMS inventory, and the PROBAST risk of bias tool was used to assess model quality. ResultsA total of 11 publications were included, containing 19 ITE models. The ITE modelling methods were regression models with interaction terms (n=8, 42.1%), dual-range models (n=5, 26.3%) and machine learning (n=6, 31.6%). The ITE models had a reporting rate of 78.9%, 73.2% and 10.5% for differentiation, calibration and clinical validity, respectively. Fourteen models were assessed as having a high risk of bias (73.7%), particularly in the area of statistical analysis, due to inappropriate handling of missing data (n=15, 78.9%), inappropriate consideration of model fit issues (n=5, 26.3%), etc. ConclusionCommon approaches to ITE model development include constructing interaction terms, dual procedure theory, and machine learning, but suffer from a low number of model developments, more complex modeling methods, and non-standardized reporting. In the future, emphasis should be placed on further exploration of ITE models, promoting diversified modeling methods and standardized reporting to improve the clinical promotion and practical application value of the models.
Objective To systematically review the methodological quality of research on clinical prediction models of traditional Chinese medicine. Methods The PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, CNKI, WanFang Data, VIP and SinoMed databases were electronically searched to collect literature related to the research on clinical prediction models of traditional Chinese medicine from inception to March 31, 2023. Two reviewers independently screened literature, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of the included studies based on prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). Results A total of 113 studies on clinical prediction models of traditional Chinese medicine (79 diagnostic model studies and 34 prognostic model studies) were included. Among them, 111 (98.2%) studies were rated at high risk of bias, while 1 (0.9%) study was rated at low risk of bias and risk of bias of 1 (0.9%) study was unclear. The analysis domain was rated with the highest proportion of high risk of bias, followed by the participants domain. Due to the widespread lack of reporting of specific study information, risk of bias of a large number of studies was unclear in both predictors and outcome domain. Conclusion Most existing researches on clinical prediction models of traditional Chinese medicine show poor methodological quality and are at high risk of bias. Factors contributing to risk of bias include non-prospective data source, outcome definitions that include predictors, inadequate modeling sample size, inappropriate feature selection, inaccurate performance evaluation, and incorrect internal validation methods. Comprehensive methodological improvements on design, conduct, evaluation, and validation of modeling, as well as reporting of all key information of the models are urgently needed for future modeling studies, aiming to facilitate their translational application in medical practice.
Objective To systematically review the performance of postpartum hemorrhage risk prediction models, and to provide references for the future construction and application of effective prediction models. Methods The CNKI, WanFang Data, VIP, CBM, PubMed, EMbase, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and CINAHL databases were electronically searched to identify studies reporting risk prediction models for postpartum hemorrhage from database inception to March 20th, 2022. Two reviewers independently screened the literature, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias and applicability of the included studies. Results A total of 39 studies containing 58 postpartum hemorrhage risk prediction models were enrolled. The area under the curve of 49 models was over 0.7. All but one of the models had a high risk of bias. Conclusion Models for predicting postpartum hemorrhage risk have good predictive performance. Given the lack of internal and external validation, and the differences in study subjects and outcome indicators, the clinical value of the models needs to be further verified. Prospective cohort studies should be conducted using uniform predictor assessment methods and outcome indicators to develop effective prediction models that can be applied to a wider range of populations.
ObjectiveTo systematically review the risk prediction models for the occurrence of low anterior resection syndrome in patients with rectal cancer after surgery. MethodsThe PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Library, Scopus, CINHAL, CNKI, CBM, WanFang Data and VIP databases were electronically searched to collect studies related to the objectives from inception to June 13, 2023. Two reviewers independently screened the literature, extracted data using the critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies (CHARMS) checklist, and assessed quality of the included studies using prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). ResultsA total of 14 studies were included, all studies reported model discrimination, and 10 studies reported calibration. The models were internally validated in 8 studies, externally validated in 5 studies. The most common predictors included in the models were tumour distance from the anal verge, neoadjuvant therapy, anastomotic leak and BMI. Only 5 studies had good overall applicability, and all studies had a high risk of bias, with the risk of bias mainly stemming from the field of participants, outcomes and analysis. ConclusionThere are still many shortcomings in the risk prediction models for the occurrence of low anterior resection syndrome in patients with rectal cancer after surgery. Future studies may consider external validation and recalibration of existing models. New prediction models should be built and validated according to methodological guidelines.
ObjectiveConstructing a prediction model for seizures after stroke, and exploring the risk factors that lead to seizures after stroke. MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted on 1 741 patients with stroke admitted to People's Hospital of Zhongjiang from July 2020 to September 2022 who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. These patients were followed up for one year after the occurrence of stroke to observe whether they experienced seizures. Patient data such as gender, age, diagnosis, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, Activity of daily living (ADL) score, laboratory tests, and imaging examination data were recorded. Taking the occurrence of seizures as the outcome, an analysis was conducted on the above data. The Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was used to screen predictive variables, and multivariate Logistic regression analysis was performed. Subsequently, the data were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set in a 7:3 ratio. Construct prediction model, calculate the C-index, draw nomogram, calibration plot, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) to evaluate the model's performance and clinical application value. ResultsThrough LASSO regression, nine non-zero coefficient predictive variables were identified: NIHSS score, homocysteine (Hcy), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), platelet count, hyperuricemia, hyponatremia, frontal lobe lesions, temporal lobe lesions, and pons lesions. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that NIHSS score, Hcy, hyperuricemia, hyponatremia, and pons lesions were positively correlated with seizures after stroke, while AST and platelet count were negatively correlated with seizures after stroke. A nomogram for predicting seizures after stroke was established. The C-index of the training set and validation set were 0.854 [95%CI (0.841, 0.947)] and 0.838 [95%CI (0.800, 0.988)], respectively. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.842 [95%CI (0.777, 0.899)] and 0.829 [95%CI (0.694, 0.936)] respectively. Conclusion These nine variables can be used to predict seizures after stroke, and they provide new insights into its risk factors.
Clinical prediction models typically utilize a combination of multiple variables to predict individual health outcomes. However, multiple prediction models for the same outcome often exist, making it challenging to determine the suitable model for guiding clinical practice. In recent years, an increasing number of studies have evaluated and summarized prediction models using the systematic review/meta-analysis method. However, they often report poorly on critical information. To enhance the reporting quality of systematic reviews/meta-analyses of prediction models, foreign scholars published the TRIPOD-SRMA reporting guideline in BMJ in March 2023. As the number of such systematic reviews/meta-analyses is increasing rapidly domestically, this paper interprets the reporting guideline with a published example. This study aims to assist domestic scholars in better understanding and applying this reporting guideline, ultimately improving the overall quality of relevant research.
ObjectiveTo systematically evaluate the risk prediction model of knee osteoarthritis (KOA). MethodsThe CNKI, WanFang Data, VIP, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Library databases were electronically searched to collect relevant studies on KOA’s risk prediction model from inception to April, 2024. After study screening and data extraction by two independent researchers, the PROBAST bias risk assessment tool was used to evaluate the bias risk and applicability of the risk prediction model. ResultsA total of 12 studies involving 21 risk prediction models for KOA were included. The number of predictors ranged from 3 to 12, and the most common predictors were age, sex, and BMI. The range of modeling AUC included in the model was 0.554-0.948, and the range of testing AUC was 0.6-0.94. The overall predictive performance of the models was mediocre and the risk of overall bias was high, and more than half of the models were not externally verified. ConclusionAt present, the overall quality and applicability of the KOA morbidity risk prediction model still have great room for improvement. Future modeling should follow the CHARMS and PROBAST to reduce the risk of bias, explore the combination of multiple modeling methods, and strengthen the external verification of the model.
ObjectiveTo construct a prediction model of diabetics distal symmetric polyneuropathy (DSPN) based on neural network algorithm and the characteristic data of traditional Chinese medicine and Western medicine. MethodsFrom the inpatients with diabetes in the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui University of Chinese Medicine from 2017 to 2022, 4 071 cases with complete data were selected. The early warning model of DSPN was established by using neural network, and 49 indicators including general epidemiological data, laboratory examination, signs and symptoms of traditional Chinese medicine were included to analyze the potential risk factors of DSPN, and the weight values of variable features were sorted. Validation was performed using ten-fold crossover, and the model was measured by accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and AUC value. ResultsThe mean duration of diabetes in the DSPN group was about 4 years longer than that in the non-DSPN group (P<0.001). Compared with non-DSPN patients, DSPN patients had a significantly higher proportion of Chinese medicine symptoms and signs such as numbness of limb, limb pain, dizziness and palpitations, fatigue, thirst with desire to drink, dry mouth and throat, blurred vision, frequent urination, slow reaction, dull complexion, purple tongue, thready pulse and hesitant pulse (P<0.001). In this study, the DSPN neural network prediction model was established by integrating traditional Chinese and Western medicine feature data. The AUC of the model was 0.945 3, the accuracy was 87.68%, the sensitivity was 73.9%, the specificity was 92.7%, the positive predictive value was 78.7%, and the negative predictive value was 90.72%. ConclusionThe fusion of Chinese and Western medicine characteristic data has great clinical value for early diagnosis, and the established model has high accuracy and diagnostic efficacy, which can provide practical tools for DSPN screening and diagnosis in diabetic population.
Objective To observe the correlation between the level of advanced glycosylation end products (AGE) in skin and diabetic retinopathy (DR), and establish and preliminatively verify the nomogramolumbaric model for predicting the risk of DR. MethodsA clinical case-control study. A total of 346 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) who were admitted to the Department of Endocrinology and Ophthalmology of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2023 to June 2024 were included in the study. Among them, 198 were males and 148 were females. The mean age was (54.77±10.92). According to whether the patients were accompanied by DR, the patients were divided into the non-DR group (NDR group) and the DR group (DR group), 174 and 172 cases, respectively. All patients underwent skin AGE detection using a noninvasive diabetes detector. Diabetes duration, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), fasting plasma glucose, Urea, creatinine (Crea), uric acid, total cholesterol, triglyceride, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), urinary albumin concentration (UALB), and body mass index (BMI) were collected in detail. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to determine the independent risk factors for T2DM concurrent DR, and to construct a nomogram prediction model for DR risk. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve), calibration curve and decision curve (DCA) were used to evaluate the model. ResultsHypertension prevalence rate (χ2=3.892), Diabetes duration (Z=?7.708), BMI (Z=?2.627), HbA1c (Z=?4.484), Urea (Z=?4.620), Crea (Z=?3.526), UALB (Z=?6.999), AGE (Z=?8.097) in DR group were significantly higher than those in NDR group, with statistical significance (P＜0.05); eGFR was lower than that in NDR group, the difference was statistically significant (Z=?6.061, P＜0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that AGE, diabetes duration, HbA1c, UALB and eGFR were independent risk factors for DR (P＜0.05). Based on the results of multi-factor regression analysis, a nomogram prediction model was constructed. The area under ROC curve of the model was 0.843, 95% confidence interval was 0.802-0.884, sensitivity and specificity were 79.1% and 75.9%, respectively. The calibration curve was basically consistent with the ideal curve. The results of DCA analysis showed that when the model predicted the risk threshold of patients with DR between 0.17 and 0.99, the clinical net benefit provided by the nomogram model was＞0. ConclusionsSkin AGE level is an independent risk factor for DR. The nomogram prediction model based on AGE, diabetes duration, HbA1c, eGFR and UALB can accurately predict the risk of DR, and has good clinical practicability.
