Objective To integrate and analyze the disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019, along with the differences between genders, and predict the trends in disease burden changes from 2020 to 2029 to improve prevention and treatment strategies. Methods The disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019 was extracted and integrated from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, and the corresponding trend was analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model with Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software. The gray prediction model [GM (1, 1) ] was used to forecast the disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China from 2020 to 2029. Results In 2019, the leading causes of esophageal cancer in China were tobacco, alcohol, high body mass index, and insufficient fruit and vegetable intake, accounting for the first to fifth positions in esophageal cancer deaths. From a gender perspective, in 2019, the death number and standardized mortality rate for males were 18.97 times and 20.00 times higher than for females, respectively. The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and standardized DALYs rate for males were 33.08 times and 24.78 times higher than those for females, respectively, indicating a heavier disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer among Chinese males. From 1990 to 2019, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in deaths and DALYs due to alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China was 2.08% and 1.63%, respectively, showing a continuous upward trend with statistical significance (P<0.05). The AAPC values for standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate from 1990 to 2019 were –0.92% and –1.23%, respectively, showing a continuous downward trend with statistical significance (P<0.05). The population aged ≥55 years was the main group bearing the disease burden among all age groups from 1990 to 2019. The gray prediction model predicted that by 2029, the overall standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate would decrease to 2.94/100 000and 67.94/100 000, with a greater decline in females than in males. Conclusion Over the past 30 years, the disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China has slightly decreased. However, the reduction in disease burden is still lower compared to the overall decline in esophageal cancer burden, and the disease burden for males is significantly higher than for females. Focusing on prevention and treatment for males and the elderly population remains a major issue in addressing alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China.
ObjectiveTo analyze the disease burden and its changing trends of lung cancer attributable to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) in China from 1990 to 2021, and to provide key strategic evidence for the prevention and treatment of tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer (hereinafter referred to as lung cancer). MethodsData related to lung cancer attributable to HFPG in China from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 database, including mortality rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized rates, and other indicators. The Joinpoint regression model was applied to analyze the temporal trends of these indicators. Furthermore, the grey prediction model GM (1,1) was used to forecast the disease burden of lung cancer attributable to HFPG in China from 2022 to 2031. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the overall disease burden of lung cancer attributable to HFPG in China showed an upward trend. The total number of deaths, DALYs, crude mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate, crude DALYs rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate increased from 0.47/10000, 12.13/10000, 0.40/100000, 0.61/100000, 10.31/100000, and 14.10/100000 in 1990 to 1.74/10000, 38.65/10000, 1.22/100000, 0.82/100000, 27.16/100000, and 17.72/100000 in 2021, with growth rates of 270.21%, 218.63%, 205.00%, 34.42%, 163.43%, and 25.67%, respectively. The increase rates among females were higher than those among males. Analysis using the Joinpoint regression model indicated that both the age-standardized mortality rate and age-standardized DALYs rate exhibited a significant upward trend, with average annual percentage changes (AAPC) of 1.01% and 0.82%, respectively, during 1990-2021 (P<0.05). The disease burden across different age and gender groups generally increased from 1990 to 2021. Mortality and DALYs rates for both males and females rose with advancing age, with elderly individuals and males constituting the primary affected populations. The GM (1,1) grey prediction model projected continued increases in mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate, DALYs rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate of lung cancer attributable to HFPG in China from 2022 to 2031, reaching 1.64/100000, 1.06/100000, 36.45/100000, and 21.81/100000, respectively, by 2031. ConclusionThe disease burden of lung cancer attributable to HFPG remained substantial in China from 1990 to 2021, with males and elderly populations bearing the highest burden. However, the growth rate of disease burden was faster among females compared to males. It is predicted that the disease burden will continue to rise over the next decade, necessitating enhanced focus on early diagnosis and treatment for women and older adults.
