Objective To integrate and analyze the disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019, along with the differences between genders, and predict the trends in disease burden changes from 2020 to 2029 to improve prevention and treatment strategies. Methods The disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019 was extracted and integrated from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, and the corresponding trend was analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model with Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software. The gray prediction model [GM (1, 1) ] was used to forecast the disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China from 2020 to 2029. Results In 2019, the leading causes of esophageal cancer in China were tobacco, alcohol, high body mass index, and insufficient fruit and vegetable intake, accounting for the first to fifth positions in esophageal cancer deaths. From a gender perspective, in 2019, the death number and standardized mortality rate for males were 18.97 times and 20.00 times higher than for females, respectively. The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and standardized DALYs rate for males were 33.08 times and 24.78 times higher than those for females, respectively, indicating a heavier disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer among Chinese males. From 1990 to 2019, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in deaths and DALYs due to alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China was 2.08% and 1.63%, respectively, showing a continuous upward trend with statistical significance (P<0.05). The AAPC values for standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate from 1990 to 2019 were –0.92% and –1.23%, respectively, showing a continuous downward trend with statistical significance (P<0.05). The population aged ≥55 years was the main group bearing the disease burden among all age groups from 1990 to 2019. The gray prediction model predicted that by 2029, the overall standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate would decrease to 2.94/100 000and 67.94/100 000, with a greater decline in females than in males. Conclusion Over the past 30 years, the disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China has slightly decreased. However, the reduction in disease burden is still lower compared to the overall decline in esophageal cancer burden, and the disease burden for males is significantly higher than for females. Focusing on prevention and treatment for males and the elderly population remains a major issue in addressing alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China.
ObjectiveTo analyze the disease burden and its changing trends of lung cancer attributable to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) in China from 1990 to 2021, and to provide key strategic evidence for the prevention and treatment of tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer (hereinafter referred to as lung cancer). MethodsData related to lung cancer attributable to HFPG in China from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 database, including mortality rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized rates, and other indicators. The Joinpoint regression model was applied to analyze the temporal trends of these indicators. Furthermore, the grey prediction model GM (1,1) was used to forecast the disease burden of lung cancer attributable to HFPG in China from 2022 to 2031. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the overall disease burden of lung cancer attributable to HFPG in China showed an upward trend. The total number of deaths, DALYs, crude mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate, crude DALYs rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate increased from 0.47/10000, 12.13/10000, 0.40/100000, 0.61/100000, 10.31/100000, and 14.10/100000 in 1990 to 1.74/10000, 38.65/10000, 1.22/100000, 0.82/100000, 27.16/100000, and 17.72/100000 in 2021, with growth rates of 270.21%, 218.63%, 205.00%, 34.42%, 163.43%, and 25.67%, respectively. The increase rates among females were higher than those among males. Analysis using the Joinpoint regression model indicated that both the age-standardized mortality rate and age-standardized DALYs rate exhibited a significant upward trend, with average annual percentage changes (AAPC) of 1.01% and 0.82%, respectively, during 1990-2021 (P<0.05). The disease burden across different age and gender groups generally increased from 1990 to 2021. Mortality and DALYs rates for both males and females rose with advancing age, with elderly individuals and males constituting the primary affected populations. The GM (1,1) grey prediction model projected continued increases in mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate, DALYs rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate of lung cancer attributable to HFPG in China from 2022 to 2031, reaching 1.64/100000, 1.06/100000, 36.45/100000, and 21.81/100000, respectively, by 2031. ConclusionThe disease burden of lung cancer attributable to HFPG remained substantial in China from 1990 to 2021, with males and elderly populations bearing the highest burden. However, the growth rate of disease burden was faster among females compared to males. It is predicted that the disease burden will continue to rise over the next decade, necessitating enhanced focus on early diagnosis and treatment for women and older adults.
ObjectiveTo systematically analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and epidemiological trends of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (TBL) disease burden attributed to air pollution globally and in China and the United States from 1990 to 2021, and to assess the patterns of disease burden changes from 2022 to 2031 based on predictive models, providing a scientific basis for formulating targeted TBL prevention and control strategies. MethodsBased on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we analyzed the disease burden data of TBL attributed to air pollution globally and in China and the United States from 1990 to 2021. R Studio 4.3.2 software was used to analyze the corresponding trends and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) prediction model was used to predict the status of the disease burden of TBL attributed to air pollution in the world and in China and the United States from 2022 to 2031. ResultsIn 2021, China had the highest number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years attributed to air pollution (211 400 patients and 4.8947 million person-years), followed by the United States (6 000 patients and 124 300 person-years). The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) of TBL due to air pollution in the world and in China and the United States showed a decreasing trend. From 1990 to 2021, the ASMR and ASDR of TBL in China due to air pollution were much higher than those in the United States and the global average. In terms of gender, from 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of male patients with TBL attributed to air pollution was much higher than that of female patients. The BAPC prediction model showed that from 2022 to 2031, the ASMR and ASDR of TBL attributed to air pollution showed an upward trend globally, while they showed a downward trend in China and the United States. ConclusionOver the past 30 years, the air pollution-related TBL disease burden in the world and in China and the United States has continued to decline, but China's disease burden is still significantly higher than the global average. The disease burden in men far exceeds that in women, with men and the population aged ≥50 years being high-risk groups. In the future, the global disease trend may reverse and rise, while China and the United States are expected to continuously decline. However, precise prevention and control for high-risk groups remains a key challenge.
