Objective To explore the long-term trends and epidemiological characteristics of the disease burden of tetanus in China over the past 30 years and to predict its disease burden in 2050, in order to comprehensively assess the overall disease burden of tetanus in China. Methods Leveraging the methods and findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we provided a detailed description of the disease burden of tetanus in China based on key indicators such as prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years, years lived with disability, and years of life lost due to premature mortality. Joinpoint regression analysis, age-period-cohort analysis, decomposition analysis, and Bayesian age-period-cohort models were employed to further elucidate the epidemiological characteristics of tetanus and predict its disease burden in China by 2050. Results From 1990 to 2021, the overall disease burden of tetanus in China exhibited a significant year-by-year decline. The primary demographic group bearing the burden of tetanus in China had gradually shifted from newborns to middle-aged and elderly individuals, with males being more affected than females. Decomposition analysis indicated that epidemiological change was a significant factor contributing to tetanus in China, while the impacts of population and aging were relatively minor. According to predictions from the Bayesian age-period-cohort model, by 2050, only the prevalence rate was expected to slightly increase, while all other indicators were projected to decline and remain at low levels. Conclusion The disease burden of tetanus in China decreased from 1990 to 2021. In subsequent prevention efforts, newborns and middle-aged and elderly individuals should be prioritized as targets for prevention and control to maintain the disease burden of tetanus at a low level.
Objective To systematically analyze the long-term trends in the disease burden and quality of care index (QCI) of pancreatitis in China from 1990 to 2023, and to evaluate the effectiveness of prevention and control measures as well as changes in care quality. MethodsData on the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) of pancreatitis were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 study, and the QCI was constructed. Joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort modeling (Wald test), and autoregressive integrated moving average model were employed for analysis and forecasting. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized incidence rate of pancreatitis in China decreased by 32.9% (from 35.35 to 23.70 per 100 000 population), the age-standardized prevalence rate decreased by 31.3% (from 35.32 to 24.26 per 100 000 population), the age-standardized mortality rate decreased by 47.8% (from 0.81 to 0.42 per 100 000 population), the age-standardized DALYs rate decreased by 47.6% (from 25.00 to 13.10 per 100 000 population), the age-standardized years lived with disability rate decreased by 31.0% (from 2.72 to 1.87 per 100 000 population), and the age-standardized years of life lost rate decreased by 49.6% (from 22.28 to 11.23 per 100 000 population). However, the crude number of incident cases increased by 26.7% (from 363 200 to 460 400), the crude number of prevalent cases increased by 45.5% (from 353 800 to 514 800), the crude number of deaths increased by 36.2% (from 6 600 to 9 000), DALYs increased by 6.3% (from 247 000 to 262 500 person-years), years lived with disability increased by 39.5% (from 27 700 to 38 600 person-years), and years of life lost increased by 2.1% (from 219 300 to 223 900 person-years). The QCI increased from 89.58 to 93.29 [with an increase of 6.72 in females (from 87.96 to 94.68) and 1.60 in males (from 90.71 to 92.31)]. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that period effects were the primary driving factor, with significant effects on incidence (χ2=154.93, P<0.01) and prevalence (χ2=316.78, P<0.01), indicating that period effects were the main drivers of changes in disease burden. Autoregressive integrated moving average model projections indicated that by 2035, the crude prevalence rate will continue to rise to 37.06 per 100 000 population, the crude mortality rate will stabilize (approximately 0.70 per 100 000 population), the crude DALYs rate will decrease to 17.12 per 100 000 population, and the QCI will increase to 100. ConclusionsFrom 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate, DALYs rate, years lived with disability rate, and years of life lost rate of pancreatitis in China all decreased significantly, but the crude numbers of incident cases, prevalent cases, and deaths continued to increase. The QCI steadily improved, with greater improvement in females than in males. Significant age and gender disparities existed in disease burden, with period effects being the main driving factor. Projections indicate a future transition towards a chronic disease pattern. Enhanced interventions targeting high-risk populations and the development of a comprehensive chronic disease management system are warranted.
