Objective To analyze the prevalence of leukemia in China from 1990 to 2019, predict the incidence, morbidity and mortality of leukemia in China from 2020 to 2040, and provides reference for the formulation of leukemia-related prevention and treatment strategies in China. Methods Based on the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database, the incidence, morbidity and mortality data of leukemia in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected, and the rate of change and annual estimated percentage of change (EAPC) were used to describe the epidemic trend of the disease. The Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the prevalence of leukemia in China from 2020 to 2040. Results In 2019, the age-standardized incidence, age-standardized prevalence and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia in China decreased by 17.62%, 10.97%, and 41.56%, respectively, compared with 1990, and an average annual decrease of 1.06%, 0.89%, and 2.05%, respectively (P<0.05). From 1990 to 2019, the reduction age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized mortality rate in Chinese women (EAPC was 1.56%, 1.38%, and 2.62%, respectively) was higher than that of men (EAPC was 0.61%, 0.43%, and 1.59%, respectively). In 2019, the incidence and prevalence were highest in the age group under 5 years of age, and the mortality rate was the highest in the age group over 80 years old. The prediction results of ARIMA model showed that the age-standardized incidence rate and prevalence of leukemia in China showed an increasing trend from 2020 to 2040, while the age-standardized mortality rate showed a decreasing trend. It is estimated that by 2040, the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia will be 14.06/100 000, 108.23/100 000, and 2.83/100 000. Conclusions From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized mortality rate of leukemia in China decreased year by year, but they were still at a high level. The prediction results show that the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate of leukemia in China will continue to increase from 2020 to 2040, and it is necessary to continue to strengthen the surveillance, prevention and control of leukemia in the future.
ObjectiveTo comprehensively analyze the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China from 1990 to 2021, and predict the trend of disease burden changes from 2022 to 2031, in order to improve its prevention and treatment strategies. MethodsData from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database were extracted and analyzed for the disease burden of nasopharyngeal cancer, laryngeal cancer, and tracheal, bronchial and lung cancers (hereinafter referred to as lung cancer) in China from 1990 to 2021. The Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software was utilized to analyze the corresponding trends. The grey prediction model [GM (1,1)] was employed to forecast the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China from 2022 to 2031. ResultsThe disease burden of respiratory cancers attributed to tobacco and occupational carcinogens in China raised from 1990 to 2021. Among the respiratory cancers, lung cancer led in terms of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and their respective age-standardized rates from 1990 to 2021, followed by nasopharyngeal cancer, with laryngeal cancer being the lowest. Analysis via the Joinpoint regression model indicated that, overall, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal and laryngeal cancers in China decreased during this time period, while that of lung cancer increased. From a gender perspective, the disease burden of male patients was significantly higher than that of female patients from 1990 to 2021. Compared to the global average, the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China from 1990 to 2021 was still relatively heavy. As of 2021, the middle-aged and elderly population above 50 years old was the primary group suffering from the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China. The prediction model showed that the age-standardized rate of nasopharyngeal cancer in China would decline from 2022 to 2031; the age-standardized incidence rate of laryngeal cancer in China would increase, while its age-standardized mortality rate and DALY rate would both decrease; the age-standardized rates of lung cancer in China would increase. ConclusionIn the past 30 years, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal and laryngeal cancers in China has lightened, but the overall disease burden of lung cancer is still on the rise. Compared to the global average, the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China is still relatively heavy. The disease burden in male patients is significantly higher than that in female patients, and the population above 50 years old is the main group suffering from the disease burden. In the next 10 years, the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China will still tend to increase. Therefore, targeted prevention and treatment strategies for men and the middle-aged and elderly populations remain key challenges that urgently need to be addressed in China's response to respiratory cancers.
ObjectiveTo analyze the latest epidemiological status of breast cancer in China, trends in morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2019, and related prognostic risk factors.MethodsData on incidence and mortality of Chinese female breast cancer, their related age-standardized rates (ASRs) from 1990 to 2019, and attributable risk factors were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, and data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 34 provinces in China were obtained from literature. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the trends of ASRs. The exposure levels of each attributable risk factor and the increased cancer burden were analyzed.ResultsThe incidence of breast cancer in Chinese females increased annually, from 17.07/100 000 in 1990 to 35.61/100 000 in 2019, while the mortality rate initially increased and decreased, and then exhibited an upward trend after 2016 and there was no obvious variation from 1990 (9.16/100 000) to 2019 (9.02/100 000). Among the 34 provinces of China, Shandong Province had the most serious breast cancer burden, while Macao Special Administrative Region had the lowest. Among the seven prognostic risk factors, high body mass index (BMI) contributed the most to the breast cancer burden and the exposure risk of a diet high in red meat had shown a significant increasing trend in the past 30 years. Therefore, the disease burden caused by a high red meat diet would be increasing.ConclusionsThe incidence rate of breast cancer in Chinese females is increasing. With the development of social economy and the change of people’s dietary habits, the breast cancer burden in China trends to become heavier and heavier. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct the "three early" prevention and treatment and advocate healthy and reasonable diet and living habits to reduce the burden of breast cancer to improve prognosis and quality of life.
Objective To analyze the trends in the burden of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and its related risk factors in China from 1990 to 2021, providing evidence for targeted prevention and control. Methods Based on public data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, four epidemiological indicators, including incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were selected to describe the burden of ICH in China in 2021. Change rates and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the trends in disease burden from 1990 to 2021. The Das Gupta method was used to decompose the effects of population growth, population aging and epidemiological changes on the burden during this period. Finally, the attributable burden of risk factors related to ICH was analyzed. Results In 2021, the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY rates of ICH in China were 61.2/100000, 222.1/100000, 68.8/100000, and 1351.6/100000, respectively, all higher than global estimates. From 1990 to 2021, although these rates showed a declining trend (EAPC: ?2.24, ?1.26, ?2.38, and ?2.47, respectively), the absolute disease burden, including the absolute number of incidence cases, prevalence cases, deaths, and DALYs, continued to rise, with an increase ranging from 20.57% to 51.59%. In addition, the burden of ICH in China varied by age and sex, with older adults and males experiencing a higher burden. Decomposition analysis indicated that population aging and growth were the primary drivers of the increasing ICH burden in China, while epidemiological changes mitigated this trend. Metabolic factors were the predominant attributable risk factors for ICH. High systolic blood pressure, ambient particulate matter pollution, and diet high in sodium were important risk factors common to both genders. The DALY burden attributable to smoking and alcohol use was higher in men, whereas impaired kidney function and secondhand smoke had a greater impact on women. Conclusions The burden of ICH in China has continued to increase from 1990 to 2021, and it may further escalate in the context of population aging. Risk factor control remains a key priority for prevention. Future strategies should incorporate age- and sex-specific interventions to reduce the ICH burden in China.
Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal trends in hepatitis B-related mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to high BMI at the global, regional, and national levels. Methods We extracted data on hepatitis B-related mortality numbers, DALYs, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardised DALY rates (ASDR) attributed to high BMI from the GBD 2021 database for the period 1990-2021, stratified by gender, age, country, and social demographic index (SDI). Time trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and decomposition analysis and frontier analysis were employed to identify the drivers of burden changes and leading countries. Inequality indicators (inequality slope index SII and concentration index CI) were used to measure health disparities across SDI levels, and the Bayesian Age Period Cohort Model (BAPC) was applied to predict disease trends up to 2050. Results The global burden of hepatitis B disease attributable to high BMI continues to rise. In 2021, the number of DALYs reached 499 900 (four times that of 1990), and the number of deaths was five times that of 1990. The burden and rate of increase were most pronounced in Asia: in 2021, East Asia recorded 7 919.70 deaths (95%UI 2 984.05 to 14 386.39) and 257 954.31 DALYs (95%UI 97 807.17 to 482 232.54), ranked highest among the 21 GBD regions; From 1990 to 2021, South Asia recorded the fastest increase in ASMR (EAPC=4.99, 95%CI 4.83 to 5.16) and the highest growth rate in ASDR (EAPC=4.92, 95%CI 4.74 to 5.10); at the national level, China and the United States had the heaviest burden. Countries with medium SDI had the highest burden, peaking at an SDI of 0.65. Global and regional decomposition analyses indicate that epidemiological changes are the primary drivers of the increased burden. The CI and SII values derived from inequality analyses of ASDR and ASMR have both increased, indicating worsening health inequalities. Frontier analysis further confirmed that certain countries, such as Tonga and Mongolia, bear a significantly higher burden than expected for their developmental level, demonstrating marked disparities in disease burden across nations. The BAPC model predicts that the burden attributable to high BMI will continue to rise in the absence of interventions. Conclusion High BMI has become an important risk factor for hepatitis B-related diseases globally, with the burden particularly pronounced in Asian regions and middle-income countries. Health inequalities must not be overlooked. Precise interventions should be implemented based on regional, gender, and age differences.
Objective The aim of this study was to describe the trends in the burden of breast cancer in women of all ages in China from 1990 to 2021, compare it with the global burden of breast cancer in women, and predict the burden of disease in the next 15 years. Methods Based on the open data of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) in 2021, the incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of breast cancer among women in China and the world were analyzed. Joinpoint was used to calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) to reflect the changing trend of disease burden. An autoregressive composite moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the disease burden of breast cancer in women from 2022 to 2036. Results From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of female breast cancer in China showed an increasing trend, with an average annual increase of 2.400 7% and 2.334 8%, respectively, and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) showed a decreasing trend. The average annual decline was 0.290 0% and 0.198 3%, respectively. Meanwhile, ASIR and ASPR of global female breast cancer also showed an increasing trend, with an average annual increase of 0.474 9% and 0.3445 2% respectively, while ASMR and ASDR showed a decreasing trend, with an average annual decrease of 0.425 2% and 0.321 8% respectively. Among them, there were differences in the impact of age on the burden of female breast cancer. The peak of ASIR and ASPR appeared in the age group of 50 to 69 years old, and generally increased with the increase of age, and then decreased when reaching the peak. ASMR and ASDR increased with age. In the following 15 years, the prevalence of breast cancer in women in China and globally showed an increasing trend, while the mortality rate showed a decreasing trend. Conclusion From the analysis of the disease burden from 1990 to 2021, breast cancer has a huge harm to women, and the incidence of young and middle-aged women is high, the death rate of middle-aged and elderly women is high, and the disease time is long, which brings a heavy psychological and economic burden to patients and society. From the trend forecast for the next 15 years, the prevalence of breast cancer in women in China and the world will increase, while the mortality rate will decrease slightly, but the decrease is not large, which will bring huge public health challenges and put higher requirements on the prevention and control of the disease. To reduce the disease burden of breast cancer, comprehensive strategies for disease control are needed, including prevention of risk factors at the primary care level, screening of at-risk populations, and quality medical services.
Objective This study utilized the 2021 Global Burden of Disease database to systematically analyze global liver cancer mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) from 1990 to 2021. It focused on differences across genders and age groups to reveal epidemiological patterns of liver cancer attributable to high BMI, providing reference for global liver cancer prevention and control. MethodsBased on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease database, the Global Health Data Exchange query tool was used to extract the total number of global liver cancer deaths, DALY, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate from 1990 to 2021. These metrics were assessed using estimated annual percentage change. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to calculate annual percentage change and average annual percentage change, comparing differences in subtype composition from 1990 to 2021. Spearman rank correlation analysis was used to examine the correlation between ASMR and ASDR attributable to high BMI and the socio-demographic index (SDI). ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the cumulative number of liver cancer deaths attributable to high BMI increased from 10 282.12 cases in 1990 ［95%UI (4 196.72, 16 721.85)］ to 46 203.88 cases ［95%UI (18 606.14, 77 983.02)］ in 2021, representing a 3.49-fold increase. DALYs attributable to high BMI-related liver cancer increased from 292 696.35 years in 1990 ［95%UI (119 094.56, 475 962.67)］ to 1 273 312.88 years ［95%UI (504 239.11, 2 101 957.87)］ in 2021, representing a 3.23-fold increase. Cumulative deaths attributable to high BMI: for males, deaths increased from 5 913.45 cases ［95%UI (2 479.64, 9 717.69)］ in 1990 to 28 511.99 cases ［95%UI (11 721.81, 49 277.60)］ in 2021, representing a 3.82-fold increase. For women, the cumulative number increased from 4 368.66 cases ［95%UI (1 707.64, 7 078.83)］ in 1990 to 17 691.88 cases ［95%UI (7 169.44, 29 573.18)］ in 2021, representing a 3.05-fold increase. Cumulative mortality values increased across all SDI income regions to varying degrees. ASMR and death counts increased firstly and then decreased, and liver cancer DALY attributable to high BMI showed the same tendencies. Relative health inequality analysis revealed the mortality concentration index rose from –0.277 (1990) to –0.258 (2021), while the DALY concentration index increased from –0.222 (1990) to –0.208 (2021). The mortality slope index increased from 0.284 (1990) to 0.881 (2021), while the DALY rate slope index rose from 7.002 (1990) to 19.244 (2021). ConclusionsThe burden of liver cancer associated with high BMI remains substantial and varies significantly across different age groups, genders, and geographic locations worldwide, necessitating sustained attention and the development of more targeted prevention and control measures tailored to current circumstances.
Objective Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, to analyze the dynamic trends and regional differences in the burden of disease of premenstrual syndrome (PMS) among women of childbearing age globally from 1990 to 2021, and to provide an evidence-based basis for optimizing the allocation of reproductive health resources. Methods Data on the prevalence, incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of PMS in 204 countries and regions in the GBD 2021 database were extracted and combined with sociodemographic indices (SDI) to assess the temporal trends and spatial distribution characteristics of the burden of disease using the annual average percentage change (AAPC). Results The global prevalence, incidence and DALYs of PMS in women of reproductive age in 2021 were 45 666.32/100 000, 11 935.05/100 000 and 381.11/100 000, respectively. From 1990 to 2021, the prevalence (AAPC=0.05%) and DALYs (AAPC=0.05%) showed a slight upward trend and a slight decrease in prevalence (AAPC=?0.06%). Prevalence and DALYs increased at a higher rate in low SDI regions, and the fastest rate of increase was seen in high-income North America in high-SDI regions. Conclusion The PMS disease burden is unevenly distributed globally and is influenced by a variety of factors, including the level of social development. In the future, it is necessary to combine multidisciplinary intervention strategies and incorporate prospective data to improve prediction models to support the development of global female reproductive health policies.
