Objective To analyze the changing trends and attributable risk factors of low back pain disease burden in Chinese population from 1990 to 2023, and to predict the related disease burden of low back pain in 2030. MethodsBased on the 2023 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study database, the incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and characteristics and trends of risk factors among Chinese individuals with low back pain from 1990 to 2023 were analyzed, the age and gender differences in disease burden were assessed, and the disease burden in 2030 was jointly predicted by autoregressive integrated moving average model and age-period-cohort model. Results From 1990 to 2023, the number of incident cases, the number of prevalent cases, and YLDs in Chinese low back pain population showed an upward trend, from 29.989 1 million cases, 68.636 3 million cases, and 7.732 4 million person-years to 41.383 6 million cases, 95.324 0 million cases, and 10.635 9 million person-years, respectively. The incidence rate, prevalence rate, and YLDs rate increased from 2 543.31 per 100 000, 5 820.89 per 100 000, and 655.77 per 100 000 to 2 892.65 per 100 000, 6 663.01 per 100 000, and 743.43 per 100 000 respectively. However, the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, and age-standardized YLDs rate showed a downward trend, from 2 859.73 per 100 000, 6 636.60 per 100 000, and 740.83 per 100 000 to 2 164.80 per 100 000, 4 929.78 per 100 000, and 551.92 per 100 000, respectively. The burden of low back pain in women was significantly higher than that in men and increased with age (peak at 50 to 59 years old). Attribution analysis showed that smoking, occupational factors, and high body mass index (BMI) were the main factors leading to the increase of YLDs, and there was a gender difference. The tow model showed that the age-standardized incidence rate, the age-standardized prevalence rate, and the age-standardized YLDs rate for low back pain would decrease year by year from 2023 to 2030. ConclusionThe disease burden of low back pain in China shows that from 1990 to 2023, the burden of low back pain in the Chinese population has been increasing year by year. Smoking, occupational factors, and high BMI are the main risk factors. Interventions targeting these controllable risk factors are crucial for reducing the disease burden. It is expected that by 2030, the disease burden of low back pain is expected to decrease, although the absolute burden will remain high. Greater attention should be paid to the middle-aged and elderly population, especially the female population, who bear a heavier disease burden. Targeted interventions, such as weight control and smoking cessation management, should be actively implemented against these controllable risk factors.
Objective To investigate the epidemiological features and changing trends of disease burden of spinal cord injury (SCI) in China from 1990 to 2023, conduct decomposition analysis of disease burden changes, and provide evidence for SCI prevention and control. Methods Based on the 2023 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study data, indicators including incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) were used to analyze the status and changing trends of SCI disease burden in China from 1990 to 2023. The Gupta decomposition framework was applied to quantify the contributions of population growth, population aging, age-specific incidence rate changes, and disease severity changes to YLDs growth. Results In 2023, the number of SCI incidence cases in China was 232 700 cases, representing a 43.6% increase compared to 1990. From 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized YLDs rate of SCI decreased, while the age-standardized incidence rate showed an overall upward trend: it increased year by year from 1990 to 2015, declined briefly after 2015, and rose again from 2020. The disease burden of SCI in males was higher than in females. The age distribution of disease burden showed a shift toward older age groups, with incidence rates increasing with age among middle-aged and elderly populations. Falls were the main cause of SCI in China. Compared with 1990, YLDs in males and females increased by 48.58% and 41.72% respectively in 2023. The proportions of male growth attributed to population growth, population aging, age-specific incidence rate changes, and disease severity changes were 22.79%, 22.69%, 34.99%, and ?31.88%, while those for females were 23.82%, 26.30%, 21.99%, and ?30.40%. ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2023, population aging made a substantial contribution to the growth of SCI disease burden in China. The primary factor driving the growth of SCI disease burden differed by gender. Clinical interventions that mitigate disease severity represent a key strategy for addressing the rapid growth of SCI disease burden.
Objective To explore the current status and changing trends of the disease burden of traumatic brain injury (TBI) in China from 1990 to 2023, and to quantitatively assess the impact of different influencing factors on this disease burden, thereby providing references for the prevention of TBI. Methods Based on the 2023 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), indicators including incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) were used to analyze the status and changing trends of TBI disease burden in China from 1990 to 2023. Additionally, the decomposition method established by Gupta was adopted to quantify the effects of population growth, population aging, age-specific incidence rate, and disease severity on YLDs. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized incidence rate and YLDs rate of TBI in China showed an overall upward trend, with a significant downward trend between 2015 and 2020, followed by a resumption of upward trend after 2020. The disease burden of TBI in males was higher than that in females, with a larger increase amplitude. The elderly population had higher TBI incidence rate and YLDs rate, also with a larger upward amplitude. Falls were the main cause of TBI in China, and the changing trend of the disease burden caused by falls was consistent with the overall trend of TBI disease burden; meanwhile, the elderly population bore a relatively high disease burden from falls. Taking 1990 as the baseline, the growth rates of YLDs in males and females in 2023 were 101.54% and 101.40%, respectively. For males, the proportions of YLDs growth attributed to population growth, population aging, age-specific incidence rate, and disease severity were 26.91%, 49.62%, 37.74%, and –12.73%, respectively; for females, the corresponding proportions were 28.85%, 57.69%, 27.65%, and –12.79%. ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2023, population aging had a significant impact on the disease burden of TBI in China. Strengthening the prevention and control of falls and paying close attention to males and the elderly population should be the key focuses of TBI prevention and control work in China in the future.
