Objective To analyze the disease burden and trends of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (TBL) attributable to occupational carcinogens in China from 1990 to 2021, in order to provide reference for the prevention and control of TBL in China. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease database 2021, with occupational carcinogens as relevant risk factors and tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer as the study diseases, data on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to occupational carcinogens in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted and age-standardized. Joinpoint regression models were used to calculate the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). Hiplot was used to visualize the distribution of disease burden by gender and age. The grey model GM (1, 1) was used to predict the disease burden and trends of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China from 2022 to 2031. Results From 1990 to 2021, the overall mortality rate, DALYs rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China increased from 1.85/100 000,53.93/100 000, 2.64/100 000, and 69.50/100 000 in 1990 to 5.22/100 000, 129.29/100 000, 3.49/100 000, and 83.80/100 000in 2021, respectively. The growth rates were 182.16%, 139.74%, 32.20%, and 20.58%, respectively. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the AAPC values of overall mortality rate, DALYs rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China from 1990 to 2021 were 3.41%, 2.87%, 0.92%, and 0.62%, respectively (all P<0.001), showing an overall upward trend, with higher values in females than in males. In 2021, the overall mortality rate of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China gradually increased with age, with high mortality rates mainly concentrated in those aged ≥65 years, and higher rates in males than in females. The overall DALYs rate showed a trend of increasing first and then slowly decreasing with age, peaking at 65-69 years old, with higher rates in males than in females. The grey prediction model GM (1, 1) showed that the predicted values of mortality rate, DALYs rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China from 2022 to 2031 all showed an upward trend. By 2031, the predicted values of mortality rate, DALYs rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate will reach 7.19/100 000, 175.63/100 000, 4.16/100 000, and 93.64/100 000, respectively. Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, the mortality rate, DALYs rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China all showed an upward trend. Males and the elderly are the main populations affected by the disease burden of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of occupational carcinogens and promote health education.
ObjectiveTo analyze the disease burden and evolving trends for gastric cancer in China and worldwide from 1990 to 2021. MethodsBased on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we analyzed the burden of gastric cancer using indicators such as incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lost due to disability (YLDs). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of these indicators to show trends over time. ResultsIn 2021, the standardized incidence rate of gastric cancer was 14.33 (per 100 000) worldwide and 29.05 (per 100 000) in China, with corresponding standardized mortality rates of 11.20 (per 100 000) and 21.51 (per 100 000). The standardized incidence rate of gastric cancer in China trended downward during 1990–2021 (AAPC=–1.61%, P<0.05), but was lower than the global decline (AAPC=–1.77%, P<0.05). During 1990-2021 in China, the rates of standardized DALYs (AAPC=–2.76%, P<0.05), standardized YLLs (AAPC=–2.78%, P<0.05) and standardized YLDs (AAPC= –1.25%, P<0.05) all showed a significant decrease. The global rates of standardized DALYs (AAPC=–2.42%, P<0.05), standardized YLLs (AAPC=–2.44%, P<0.05) and standardized YLDs (AAPC=–1.56%, P<0.05) all showed a significant decrease. These AAPC values above indicated a general attenuation in the gastric cancer burden across all age groups, both in China and worldwide. ConclusionsDespite these signs of a decline in disease burden indicators for gastric cancer in China and worldwide, the number of cases and deaths in gastric cancer remains substantial coupled with the heavy burden on the healthcare system. Therefore, increased efforts in early detection and prevention strategies are of utmost importance to further reduce the impact of this malignant disease.
ObjectiveTo analyze the gender-specific distribution patterns of the disease burden of tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer (hereinafter referred to as lung cancer) attributed to tobacco from 1990 to 2021 globally and in China and the United States (US), and to predict the trend of disease burden changes from 2022 to 2031, aiming to provide multi-dimensional evidence-based support for optimizing tobacco control strategies and precise lung cancer prevention and control systems. MethodsData on the disease burden of lung cancer attributed to tobacco from 1990 to 2021 globally and in China and the US were extracted and integrated from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. The Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software was used to analyze the corresponding trends in disease burden. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) prediction model was employed to forecast the disease burden of lung cancer from 2022 to 2031. ResultsIn 2021, China had the highest number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to lung cancer attributed to tobacco, followed by the US. The top three risk factors for lung cancer globally and in China and the US from 1990 to 2021 were tobacco, air pollution, and occupational risks. The disease burden of lung cancer patients attributed to tobacco has been decreasing year by year in the global and US populations [the average annual percentage change (AAPC) values of age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs rate were: globally: ?0.96%, ?1.28%; US: ?2.33%, ?2.72%], while it has been increasing in China (the AAPC values of age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs rate were 0.28% and ?0.02%, respectively). From a gender perspective, the disease burden of male patients with lung cancer attributed to tobacco was much higher than that of female patients from 1990 to 2021. Compared to the global average, the disease burden of lung cancer attributed to tobacco in China and the US from 1990 to 2021 was still heavy, with China’s burden being higher than that of the US. The elderly population aged ≥65 years in the global context and in China and the US was the primary group affected by the disease burden of lung cancer attributed to tobacco. The BAPC prediction model indicated that from 2022 to 2031, the age-standardized rates of lung cancer attributed to tobacco in the global context and in China and the US would show a declining trend. ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of lung cancer attributed to tobacco in China and the US was still heavy compared to the global average, with China’s burden being significantly higher than that of the US. The focus on prevention and control for both countries remains among the middle-aged and elderly population (especially males), which is a key challenge for tobacco-related lung cancer prevention and treatment work in the next 10 years.
Objective To assess the evolving disease burden of esophageal and gastric cancers in China from 1990 to 2021, with a focus on gender disparities, and construct a predictive model to forecast disease trends from 2022 to 2031, aiming to optimize targeted prevention strategies. MethodsEpidemiological data for esophageal and gastric cancers in China (1990-2021) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression (version 4.9.1.0), and future trends were predicted via the GM (1, 1) model under grey system theory. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, tobacco- and alcohol-attributable burdens of esophageal cancer increased, while tobacco- and diet-related burdens of gastric cancer showed no significant change. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for esophageal cancer rose by 40.61% and 17.89%, respectively; gastric cancer deaths increased by 18.95%, though DALY decreased by 1.22%. Both cancers exhibited significant declines in age-standardized mortality rates (?45.78% for esophageal cancer, ?53.29% for gastric cancer) and age-standardized DALY rates (?51.45% for esophageal cancer, ?57.58% for gastric cancer). China’s age-standardized mortality and DALY rates for both cancers remained consistently higher than global averages. Males exhibited disproportionately higher burdens than females. Predictive modeling projected continued but decelerating declines in disease burdens for both cancers by 2031. ConclusionOver three decades, China achieves measurable reductions in esophageal and gastric cancer burdens, though gastric cancer burdens remain higher than esophageal cancer. Persistent disparities relative to global levels, elevated male burdens, and aging demographics highlight the urgency for prioritized interventions targeting high-risk populations.
Objective To integrate and analyze the disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019, along with the differences between genders, and predict the trends in disease burden changes from 2020 to 2029 to improve prevention and treatment strategies. Methods The disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019 was extracted and integrated from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, and the corresponding trend was analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model with Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software. The gray prediction model [GM (1, 1) ] was used to forecast the disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China from 2020 to 2029. Results In 2019, the leading causes of esophageal cancer in China were tobacco, alcohol, high body mass index, and insufficient fruit and vegetable intake, accounting for the first to fifth positions in esophageal cancer deaths. From a gender perspective, in 2019, the death number and standardized mortality rate for males were 18.97 times and 20.00 times higher than for females, respectively. The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and standardized DALYs rate for males were 33.08 times and 24.78 times higher than those for females, respectively, indicating a heavier disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer among Chinese males. From 1990 to 2019, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in deaths and DALYs due to alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China was 2.08% and 1.63%, respectively, showing a continuous upward trend with statistical significance (P<0.05). The AAPC values for standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate from 1990 to 2019 were –0.92% and –1.23%, respectively, showing a continuous downward trend with statistical significance (P<0.05). The population aged ≥55 years was the main group bearing the disease burden among all age groups from 1990 to 2019. The gray prediction model predicted that by 2029, the overall standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate would decrease to 2.94/100 000and 67.94/100 000, with a greater decline in females than in males. Conclusion Over the past 30 years, the disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China has slightly decreased. However, the reduction in disease burden is still lower compared to the overall decline in esophageal cancer burden, and the disease burden for males is significantly higher than for females. Focusing on prevention and treatment for males and the elderly population remains a major issue in addressing alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China.
ObjectiveTo provide reference for the formulation of public health policies through exploring the disease burden of aortic aneurysm (AA) in Chinese young adults. MethodsWe analyzed sex-specific mortality rates and years of life lost (YLLs) among Chinese young adults with AA in Global Burden of Disease (GBD) from 1990 to 2019, and compared with global and young adult AA data stratified by sociodemographic index (SDI). Joinpoint was used to analyze the time trend of AA burden among young males and females in China. The attributable risk factors for AA burden in young adults and its characteristics were analyzed. ResultsAmong young adults (15-39 years old) in China, the total of AA deaths in 2019 was 657 (95%UI 549-791), with an increase of 16.90% compared with 1990. The mortality rate in 2019 was 0.13 per 100 000 (95%UI 0.11-0.16), with an increase of 30.00% compared with 1990. In 2019, a total of 36921 YLLs (95%UI 30 865-44 445) were produced by young adults in China, with an increase of 13.21% compared with 1990. The YLLs rate in 2019 was 7.42 per 100 000 (95%UI 6.20-8.93), with an increase of 24.92% compared with 1990. The male YLLs rate was 11.49 per 100 000 (95%UI 9.22-14.28), with an increase of 35.18%. The female YLLs rate was 3.11 per 100 000 (95%UI 2.36-3.98), with a decrease of 3.12%. Both the AA mortality rate and YLLs rate in male young adults were higher than those in female young adults, and the growth rate from 1990 to 2019 was significantly higher than that in females. ConclusionThe disease burden of AA among young adults in China increases significantly from 1990 to 2019, mainly among males. The time trend of male and female AA YLLs in Chinese young adults is obviously inconsistent. The AA YLLs of Chinese male young adults are positively correlated with economic development and the progress of medical technology, and are in the process of gradual increase. The AA YLLs of Chinese female young adults are much lower than the average level, which is closely related to the low smoking rate.
Objective To analyze the current status and temporal trends of the disease burden of spinal fractures in China from 1990 to 2021 based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), aiming to provide evidence for developing prevention and treatment strategies. Methods Epidemiological data on spinal fractures in China, the United States of America (USA), and globally were extracted from the GBD 2021 database. Joinpoint regression models were applied to analyze temporal trends. Age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were calculated, with comparisons of gender- and age-group disparities. Results In 2021, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and DALYs of spinal fractures in China increased by 52.28%, 113.68%, and 106.98%, respectively, compared to 1990. The age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates rose by 11.80%, 16.11%, and 14.79%, respectively. The disease burden escalated significantly with age, peaking in individuals aged ≥75 years. Males exhibited higher age-standardized incidence and DALYs rates than females. Comparative analysis revealed that the age-standardized DALYs rate in China (4.19/100 000) was lower than that in globally (6.62/100 000) and USA (15.92/100 000). However, China showed an upward trend [annual average percentage change (AAPC)=0.19%], contrasting with a declining trend in the USA (AAPC=–0.08%). ConclusionThe escalating disease burden of spinal fractures in China is closely linked to population aging, gender disparities, and insufficient targeted prevention policies. Future strategies should integrate age- and gender-specific interventions, including strengthened osteoporosis prevention, trauma risk control, and big data-driven precision measures, to mitigate this burden.
Objective To assess the burden of hypertensive nephropathy in China and the world from 1990 to 2021 and predict future trends. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease Database 2021, standardized prevalence, standardized mortality and standardized disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates were used to describe the burden of hypertensive nephropathy in China and the world from 1990 to 2021. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and autoregressive integrated moving average model were used to reveal the trend of disease burden. Results From 1990 to 2021, the EAPCs of standardized prevalence, standardized mortality and standardized DALY rates of hypertensive nephropathy in China were ?0.61% (?0.73%, ?0.50%), ?0.77% (?0.85%, ?0.69%), and ?1.00% (?1.09%, ?0.91%), respectively. The global EAPCs for standardized prevalence, standardized mortality, and standardized DALY rates of hypertensive nephropathy were ?0.16% (?0.18%, ?0.13%), 0.97% (0.91%, 1.03%), and 0.63% (0.58%, 0.67%), respectively. The standardized prevalence rate, standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate of hypertensive nephropathy in China all showed a downward trend, and the global standardized prevalence rate also showed a downward trend, while the global standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate showed an upward trend, and the indicators of disease burden in China were lower than the global level. The standardized mortality rate and the standardized DALY rate of hypertensive nephropathy were higher in males than in females. With the increase of age, the disease burden indicators of hypertensive nephropathy in China and the world were on the rise, and the age of disease and death were concentrated in the age group over 65 years old. Renal dysfunction and hypertension were important risk factors for death in hypertensive nephropathy patients. It was estimated that from 2022 to 2040, the standardized prevalence rate and mortality rate of hypertensive nephropathy would be on the rise in China and the world, and the standardized DALY rate would be on the rise in the world, while in China it would be on the decline. Conclusions The burden of hypertensive nephropathy is heavy in China and the world from 1990 to 2021, and the control of hypertension and prevention of renal dysfunction should be strengthened. It is estimated that the standardized prevalence and mortality of hypertensive nephropathy will increase in China and the world from 2022 to 2040, and the disease burden will remain heavy.
Recently, sponsored by the Science Popularization Department of the China Anti Cancer Association, jointly organized by the Rehabilitation Branch of the China Anti Cancer Association and the Mijian Digital Cancer Patient Course Management Platform, and co-organized by the Science Popularization Special Committee of the China Anti Cancer Association, The "2022 White Paper on the Quality of Life of Chinese Lung Cancer Patients" has been officially released (herein after referred to as the "White Paper"), which mainly elaborates on the basic situation of Chinese lung cancer patients and the medical, social, and economic impacts caused by the disease. This article interprets the White Paper in order to help the public understand the real situation of lung cancer patients and provide important empirical evidence and valuable insights for the diagnosis, treatment, and rehabilitation of lung cancer in China.
Objective?To estimate the population attributable disease burden (PAD) of low bone mineral density (LBMD) related fractures (fragility fractures) among Chinese people over 50 years old from 1990 to 2023, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (GBD 2023), and to provide evidence for prevention strategies and health resource allocation. Methods? Based on the GBD 2023, the LBMD summary exposure values (SEV), fracture incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and LBMD-related falls YLDs of Chinese people over 50 years old from 1990 to 2023 were extracted. PAD was calculated with population attributable fraction (PAF), and an entropy-weight method was applied to evaluate the contribution of individual fracture sites. Temporal trends and sex differences were examined with Joinpoint regression. Results?From 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized SEV of LBMD in people over 50 years old showed an overall decline [average annual percent change (AAPC)=?0.564%]. Age-standardized fracture incidence, fracture YLDs rate, and LBMD-related falls YLDs rate all exhibited W-shaped upward trends (AAPC=1.045%, 0.296%, and 0.724%, respectively). PAF-based estimates indicated that LBMD-attributable fracture incidence likewise increased in a “W-shaped” manner (AAPC=0.558%), whereas the corresponding YLDs rate showed an overall W-shaped decline (AAPC=?0.193%). In international comparison, China and the global average displayed broadly concordant directions of change, with greater volatility in China and a progressive narrowing of the gap after 2015. Regarding sex differences, fracture YLDs rates were consistently higher in the males, whereas the other burden indicators were higher in the females; the temporal patterns were similar in both sexes. Entropy weight method identified hip fractures as contributing most to incidence (weight 0.133), and pelvic fractures as the largest contributor to YLDs rate (weight 0.115). ConclusionSince 1990, the LBMD attributable fracture burden in China’s older population has risen, with female and hip or pelvic fractures bearing the heaviest load. Strengthened osteoporosis screening, improved insurance coverage, and targeted health education are urgently needed to curb further increases in disease burden.
