Objective To conduct a systematic review of the construction methods, predictive factors, and model quality of risk prediction models for postoperative chronic pain in knee replacement surgery patients, providing evidence for the development of nursing-sensitive dynamic prediction models. Methods A systematic review of risk prediction models for postoperative chronic pain in knee replacement surgery patients was conducted by searching PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, SinoMed, CNKI, Wanfang Database, and VIP Database. The search period was from the establishment of the databases to February 28, 2025. Two researchers independently screened the literature, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias and applicability of the included studies. Results A total of 10 studies involving 10 predictive models were included in this review. Among these, three models underwent internal validation, and one model underwent external validation. Commonly reported predictive factors included postoperative 24-hour Numerical Rating Scale scores, postoperative knee function scores, sleep disorders, preoperative depression, postoperative functional exercises, postoperative complications, preoperative pain, and postoperative C-reactive protein levels. All 10 studies had a high risk of bias and were generally applicable. Conclusions Existing risk prediction models generally rely on static indicators and lack dynamic monitoring of postoperative rehabilitation behaviors and psychosocial factors, with severe deficiencies in model validation. Future research should focus on developing nursing-led multidimensional dynamic models that incorporate functional exercise adherence data collected via wearable devices, standardize external model validation, and enhance clinical translation value.
Objective To explore the correlation between the quantitative and qualitative features of CT images and the invasiveness of pulmonary ground-glass nodules, providing reference value for preoperative planning of patients with ground-glass nodules. MethodsThe patients with ground-glass nodules who underwent surgical treatment and were diagnosed with pulmonary adenocarcinoma from September 2020 to July 2022 at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University were collected. Based on the pathological diagnosis results, they were divided into two groups: a non-invasive adenocarcinoma group with in situ and minimally invasive adenocarcinoma, and an invasive adenocarcinoma group. Imaging features were collected, and a univariate logistic regression analysis was conducted on the clinical and imaging data of the patients. Variables with statistical difference were selected for multivariate logistic regression analysis to establish a predictive model of invasive adenocarcinoma based on independent risk factors. Finally, the sensitivity and specificity were calculated based on the Youden index. Results A total of 555 patients were collected. The were 310 patients in the non-invasive adenocarcinoma group, including 235 females and 75 males, with a meadian age of 49 (43, 58) years, and 245 patients in the invasive adenocarcinoma group, including 163 females and 82 males, with a meadian age of 53 (46, 61) years. The binary logistic regression analysis showed that the maximum diameter (OR=4.707, 95%CI 2.060 to 10.758), consolidation/tumor ratio (CTR, OR=1.027, 95%CI 1.011 to 1.043), maximum CT value (OR=1.025, 95%CI 1.004 to 1.047), mean CT value (OR=1.035, 95%CI 1.008 to 1.063), spiculation sign (OR=2.055, 95%CI 1.148 to 3.679), and vascular convergence sign (OR=2.508, 95%CI 1.345 to 4.676) were independent risk factors for the occurrence of invasive adenocarcinoma (P<0.05). Based on the independent predictive factors, a predictive model of invasive adenocarcinoma was constructed. The formula for the model prediction was: Logit(P)=–1.293+1.549×maximum diameter of lesion+0.026×CTR+0.025×maximum CT value+0.034×mean CT value+0.72×spiculation sign+0.919×vascular convergence sign. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.910 (95%CI 0.885 to 0.934), indicating that the model had good discrimination ability. The calibration curve showed that the predictive model had good calibration, and the decision analysis curve showed that the model had good clinical utility. Conclusion The predictive model combining quantitative and qualitative features of CT has a good predictive ability for the invasiveness of ground-glass nodules. Its predictive performance is higher than any single indicator.
Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a complication with high morbidity and mortality after cardiac surgery. In order to predict the incidence of AKI after cardiac surgery, many risk prediction models have been established worldwide. We made a detailed introduction to the composing features, clinical application and predictive capability of 14 commonly used models. Among the 14 risk prediction models, age, congestive heart failure, hypertension, left ventricular ejection fraction, diabetes, cardiac valve surgery, coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) combined with cardiac valve surgery, emergency surgery, preoperative creatinine, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), preoperative New York Heart Association (NYHA) score>Ⅱ, previous cardiac surgery, cadiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time and low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS) are included in many risks prediction models (>3 times). In comparison to Mehta and SRI models, Cleveland risk prediction model shows the best discrimination for the prediction of renal replacement therapy (RRT)-AKI and AKI in the European. However, in Chinese population, the predictive ability of the above three risk prediction models for RRT-AKI and AKI is poor.
Objective To investigate the risk factors for Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) infections, and construct a clinical model for predicting the risk of CRKP infections. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on Klebsiella pneumoniae infection patients hospitalized in the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University from May 2020 to May 2021. The patients were divided into a CRKP group (117 cases) and a Carbapenem-sensitive Klebsiella pneumoniae (CSKP) group (191 cases). The predictors were screened by full subset regression using R software (version 4.3.1). The truncation values of continuous data were determined by Youden index. Nomogram and score table model for CRKP infections risk prediction was constructed based on binary logistic regression. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and area under curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the accuracy of models. Calibration curve and decision curve were used to evaluate the performance of models. Results308 patients with Klebsiella pneumoniae infections were included. A total of 8 predictors were selected by using full subset regression and truncation values were determined according to Youden index: intensive care unit (ICU) stay at time of infection>2 days, male, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHEⅡ) score>15 points, hospitalization stay at time of infection>10 days, any history of Gram-negative bacteria infection in the last 6 months, heart disease, lung infection, antibiotic exposure history in the last 6 months. The AUC of CRKP prediction risk curve model was 0.811 (95%CI 0.761 - 0.860). When the optimal cut-off value of the constructed CRKP prediction risk rating table was 6 points, the AUC was 0.723 (95%CI 0.672 - 0.774). The Bootstrap method was used for internal repeated sampling for 1000 times for verification. The model calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P=0.618) showed that these models have good calibration degree. The decision curve showed that these models have good clinical effectiveness. Conclusion The prediction model of CRKP infections based on the above 8 risk factors can be used as a risk prediction tool for clinical identification of CRKP infections.
Objective To scoping review the risk prediction models for sarcopenia in China was conducted, and provide reference for scientific prevention and treatment of the disease and related research. Methods We systematically searched PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Embase, China Knowledge Network, China Biomedical Literature Database, Wanfang Database, and Weipu Database for literature related to myasthenia gravis prediction models in China, with a time frame from the construction of the database to April 30, 2024 for the search. The risk of bias and applicability of the included literature were assessed, and information on the construction of myasthenia gravis risk prediction models, model predictors, model presentation form and performance were extracted. Results A total of 25 literatures were included, the prevalence of sarcopenia ranged from 12.16% to 54.17%, and the study population mainly included the elderly, the model construction methods were categorized into two types: logistic regression model and machine learning, and age, body mass index, and nutritional status were the three predictors that appeared most frequently. Conclusion Clinical caregivers should pay attention to the high-risk factors for the occurrence of sarcopenia, construct models with accurate predictive performance and high clinical utility with the help of visual model presentation, and design prospective, multicenter internal and external validation methods to continuously improve and optimize the models to achieve the best predictive effect.
Objective To analyze the correlation among the clinicopathologic features, ultrasound imaging features, and axillary lymph node metastasis in breast cancer patients with negative clinical evaluation of axillary lymph nodes (cN0), and to establish a logistic regression model to predict axillary lymph node metastasis, so as to provide a reference for more accurate evaluation of axillary lymph node status in cN0 breast cancer patients. Methods The data of 501 female patients with cN0 breast cancer who were hospitalized and operated in the Affiliated Hospital of Wuhan University of Science and Technology (Xiaogan Central Hospital) from December 2013 to October 2020 were collected. Among them, 376 patients from December 2013 to December 2019 were selected to establish a prediction model for axillary lymph node metastasis of cN0 breast cancer. In the modeling group, the basic information, clinical pathological characteristics, and ultrasound imaging features of patients were analyzed by single factor analysis. The factors with statistical significance were included in the multivariate logistic regression analysis, and the logistic regression prediction model was established. The model was evaluated by the correction curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test goodness of fit. The model was validated in the validation group (125 patients from January to October 2020), and the receiver operation characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn. Results The probability of positive axillary lymph nodes in 501 patients with cN0 breast cancer was 28.14% (141/501). The univariate analysis results of the modeling group showed that the histological grade, vascular invasion, progesterone receptor (PR), Ki-67, age, molecular typing, ultrasound breast imaging-reporting and data system (BI-RADS) grade were associated with axillary lymph node metastasis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the vascular infiltration, positive estrogen receptor (ER) , ultrasound BI-RADS grade 4C and Ki-67≥14% increased the probability of axillary lymph node metastasis (P<0.05). Using the above prediction factors to establish the prediction nomogram, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the modeling group was 0.72 [95%CI (0.66, 0.78)], the cut-off value was 0.30, the sensitivity was 61.00%, and the specificity was 71.20%. The newly established axillary lymph node transfer logistic regression model was applied to the validation group (n=125), and the AUC was 0.72 [95%CI (0.53, 0.76)]. The truncation value was 0.40, and the total coincidence rate was 69.60% (87/125), positive predictive value was 47.37% (18/38), and negative predictive value was 91.95% (80/87). Conclusions Vascular invasion, positive ER , ultrasound BI-RADS grade 4C, and Ki-67≥14% are risk predictors of axillary lymph node metastasis in cN0 breast cancer patients. The negative predictive value of the model is 91.95%, which has a higher value in predicting axillary lymph node metastasis in early breast cancer patients, and can provide a reference for screening exempt sentinel lymph node biopsy population.
Objective To analyze the risk factors affecting the occurrence of arrhythmia after esophageal cancer surgery, construct a risk prediction model, and explore its clinical value. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of patients who underwent radical esophagectomy for esophageal cancer in the Department of Thoracic Surgery at Anhui Provincial Hospital from 2020 to 2023. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to screen potential factors influencing postoperative arrhythmia. A risk prediction model for postoperative arrhythmia was constructed, and a nomogram was drawn. The predictive performance of the model was then validated. Results A total of 601 esophageal cancer patients were randomly divided into a modeling group (421 patients) and a validation group (180 patients) at a 7 : 3 ratio. In the modeling group, patients were further categorized into an arrhythmia group (188 patients, 44.7%) and a non-arrhythmia group (233 patients, 55.3%) based on whether they developed postoperative arrhythmia. Among those with postoperative arrhythmia, 43 (10.2%) patients had atrial fibrillation (AF), 12 (2.9%) patients had atrial premature beats, 15 (3.6%) patients had sinus bradycardia, and 143 (34%) patients had sinus tachycardia. Some patients exhibited multiple arrhythmias, including 14 patients with AF combined with sinus tachycardia, 7 patients with AF combined with atrial premature beats, and 3 patients with AF combined with sinus bradycardia. Univariate analysis revealed that a history of hypertension, heart disease, pulmonary infection, acute respiratory distress syndrome, postoperative hypoxia, anastomotic leakage, and delirium were risk factors for postoperative arrhythmia in esophageal cancer patients (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that a history of heart disease, pulmonary infection, and postoperative hypoxia were independent risk factors for postoperative arrhythmia after esophageal cancer surgery (P<0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the constructed risk prediction model for postoperative arrhythmia was 0.710 [95% CI (0.659, 0.760)], with a sensitivity of 0.617 and a specificity of 0.768. Conclusion A history of heart disease, pulmonary infection, and postoperative hypoxia are independent risk factors for postoperative arrhythmia after esophageal cancer surgery. The risk prediction model constructed in this study can effectively identify high-risk patients for postoperative arrhythmia, providing a basis for personalized interventions.
ObjectiveTo explore the risk factors for postoperative respiratory failure (RF) in patients with esophageal cancer, construct a predictive model based on the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-logistic regression, and visualize the constructed model. MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted on patients with esophageal cancer who underwent surgical treatment in the Department of Thoracic Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center Gansu Hospital from 2020 to 2023. Patients were divided into a RF group and a non-RF (NRF) group according to whether RF occurred after surgery. Clinical data of the two groups were collected, and LASSO-logistic regression was used to optimize feature selection and construct the predictive model. The model was internally validated by repeated sampling 1000 times based on the Bootstrap method. ResultsA total of 217 patients were included, among which 24 were in the RF group, including 22 males and 2 females, with an average age of (63.33±9.10) years; 193 were in the NRF group, including 161 males and 32 females, with an average age of (62.14±8.44) years. LASSO-logistic regression analysis showed that the percentage of forced expiratory volume in one second/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) to predicted value (FEV1/FVC%pred) [OR=0.944, 95%CI (0.897, 0.993), P=0.026], postoperative anastomotic fistula [OR=4.106, 95%CI (1.457, 11.575), P=0.008], and postoperative lung infection [OR=3.776, 95%CI (1.373, 10.388), P=0.010] were risk factors for postoperative RF in patients with esophageal cancer. Based on the above risk factors, a predictive model was constructed, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.819 [95%CI (0.737, 0.901)]. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test for the calibration curve showed that the model had good goodness of fit (P=0.527). The decision curve showed that the model had good clinical net benefit when the threshold probability was between 5% and 50%. Conclusion FEV1/FVC%pred, postoperative anastomotic fistula, and postoperative lung infection are risk factors for postoperative RF in patients with esophageal cancer. The predictive model constructed based on LASSO-logistic regression analysis is expected to help medical staff screen high-risk patients for early individualized intervention.
ObjectiveTo verify the influence of different variable selection methods on the performance of clinical prediction models. MethodsThree sample sets were extracted from the MIMIC database (acute myocardial infarction group, sepsis group, and cerebral hemorrhage group) using the direct entry of COX regression, step by step forward, step by step backward, LASSO, and ridge regression, based on random forest. These existing six methods of variable importance algorithm, and the optimal variable set of different selected methods were used to construct the model. Through the C index, the area under the ROC curve (AUC value) and the calibration curve, and the results within and between groups were compared. ResultsThe variables and numbers selected by the six variable selection methods were different, however, whether it was within or between groups did not reflect which method had the advantage of significantly improving the performance of the model. ConclusionsPrior to using the variable selection method to establish a clinical prediction model, we should first clarify the research purpose and determine the type of data. Combining medical knowledge to select a method that can meet the data type and simultaneously achieve the research purpose.
Objective To predict the patients who can benefit from local surgery for bone-only metastatic breast cancer (bMBC). Methods Patients newly diagnosed with bMBC between 2010 and 2019 in SEER database were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7∶3. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze the independent prognostic factors of overall survival in the training set, and the variables were screened and the prognostic prediction model was constructed. The concordance index (C-index), time-dependent clinical receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the discrimination, calibration and clinical applicability of the model in the training set and validation set, respectively. The model was used to calculate the patient risk score and classify the patients into low-, medium- and high-risk groups. Survival analysis was used to compare the survival difference between surgical and non-surgical patients in different risk groups. Results A total of 2057 patients were enrolled with a median age of 45 years (interquartile range 47-62 years) and a median follow-up of 32 months (interquartile range 16-53 months). Totally 865 patients (42.1%) died. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis showed that the overall survival of patients with surgery was better than that of patients without surgery [hazard ratio=0.51, 95% confidence interval (0.43, 0.60), P<0.001]. Chemotherapy, marital status, molecular subtype, age, pathological type and histological grade were independent prognostic factors for overall survival (P<0.05), and a prognostic prediction model was constructed based on the independent prognostic factors. The C-index was 0.702 in the training set and 0.703 in the validation set. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUCs of the training set and validation set were 0.734, 0.727, 0.731 and 0.755, 0.737, 0.708, respectively. The calibration curve showed that the predicted survival rates of 1, 3, and 5 years in the training set and the validation set were highly consistent with the actual survival rates. DCA showed that the prediction model had certain clinical applicability in the training set and the validation set. Patients were divided into low-, medium- and high-risk subgroups according to their risk scores. The results of log-rank test showed that local surgery improved overall survival in the low-risk group (training set: P=0.013; validation set: P=0.024), but local surgery did not improve overall survival in the medium-risk group (training set: P=0.45; validation set: P=0.77) or high-risk group (training set: P=0.56; validation set: P=0.94). Conclusions Local surgery can improve the overall survival of some patients with newly diagnosed bMBC. The prognostic stratification model based on clinicopathological features can evaluate the benefit of local surgery in patients with newly diagnosed bMBC.
